A stunning backdown by the Nick Xenophon Team senators over water policy has cleared the way for the Turnbull government to claim a year-ending Senate victory that would see the construction watchdog reinstated.
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On Friday, Senator Xenophon and his team warned they would not vote for any government legislation unless there were additional guarantees for 450 gigalitres in environmental water flows for the Murray River.
Four days later, the trio backed down and struck a deal that provided no additional guarantees on the 450 gigalitres but claimed victory after negotiations with Prime Minster Malcolm Turnbull and South Australian Premier Jay Weatherill.
The deal effectively sidelines Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce, which will delight South Australian Liberals who are furious with Mr Joyce's handling of the issue, and his apparent decision to side with the eastern states over the Murray.
It ensures the issue will be discussed at Council of Australian Government meetings by the Prime Minister and premiers twice yearly, and offers additional accountability through the Senate estimates process - but Senator Xenophon admitted that there is no extra money, and no extra water flows in the short-term.
Crucially for the Turnbull government, the end to the water stand-off meant that negotiations over the restoration of the Australian Building and Construction Commission could be finalised.
That opens the door to a successful end to 2016 for Mr Turnbull and his government, and would build on deals done over the Registered Organisations commission, superannuation and the backpacker tax.
Senator Xenophon said the chances of the ABCC bill being passed were now "better than 50-50" but that it was unlikely to pass by midnight Tuesday.
The government needs the four Pauline Hanson One Nation senators - one, Rod Culleton, may go rogue - the three Xenophon senators, and independents David Leyonhjelm and Derryn Hinch to be sure of the ABCC bill's passage.
The Nick Xenophon Team team senators and Senators Culleton and Hinch have concerns over the retrospectivity of the ABCC bills, and other issues such as security of payments and protections for sub-contractors.
After days of negotiation with Mr Turnbull and Mr Weatherill over water, Mr Xenophon batted away suggestions of a backdown over water.
"The problem with the plan, as it was set out, under the previous government, was that there was no robustness in the mechanisms of dealing with it and what we are seeing is the plan has been elevated to that, the first ministers, the Prime Minister, the premiers and the Chief minister of the ACT," he said.
"The fact that the Prime Minister has taken charge of the plan is a big deal."
Senator Xenophon repeatedly declined questions about the sidelining of Mr Joyce and whether the deputy prime minister had mishandled the issue in the first place.
Labor and the Greens immediately rounded on Senator Xenophon - whose stocks in South Australia have risen at their expense.
Labor's Penny Wong said the senator had sold out South Australians.
"We wanted Nick Xenophon, along with every South Australian senator and member, to stand up for South Australia. We needed water, we didn't need more talk. As long as Malcolm Turnbull has got Barnaby Joyce in the water portfolio, we know Barnaby will never deliver an outcome that's good for South Australians and that's good for the basin," she said.
"[Xenophon] has gone for a deal that gives him an excuse to vote for the government's legislation, a deal that is about more talk, that's not about more water. That's disappointing."
Greens senator Sarah Hanson-Young said the crossbench party could not be trusted to stand up for South Australia.
"Nick Xenophon has just sold South Australia down the river . . . he's letting South Australia and the River Murray down, just so he can cosy up to the Coalition and help them to rip rights away from hard-working Australians."
