With Australia likely to remain the destination of choice among Afghanistan's wealthy, the number of Afghans seeking asylum will increase in the lead-up to the withdrawal of foreign forces from the country next year, says a report by the development consultancy STATT.
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Facing dire predictions for the stability of their country, many Afghans are already preparing to leave. The report finds Australia is likely to remain a favoured destination for those who can afford it, particularly the ethnic Hazara minority which faces significant persecution in Afghanistan and Pakistan, many of whom have family in Australia.
''While there is tremendous variation between the migration options facing elites and the poor, overall there is a platform for more diverse, bigger, faster and more distant migration,'' the report says.
''Many countries that already receive regular and irregular migrants from Afghanistan are likely to see these flows increase.''
By international standards Australia is a minor destination for Afghan refugees but the issue has a huge political impact. The report suggests there will be a rise in boat people this year.
The number of Afghans seeking asylum in Australia fell in 2011, for the first time in six years, but the latest figures from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees show a significant rise in the first half of last year. There were 2126 claims in the first half, more than four times as many as in the same period in 2011.
In the 2011-12 financial year, 3179 Afghan boat people applied for asylum. Another 138 applied in Australia after flying here. This compares with 528 in 2008-09.
There are nearly 3 million Afghan refugees - one in every four - in the world. Afghan refugees are in 79 countries but 95 per cent of them live in Pakistan or Iran.
From more than 20,000 interviews, STATT researchers found many Afghans with the wherewithal to leave were already talking about getting out.
STATT's managing director, Jacob Townsend, said anecdotal evidence pointed to another exodus. ''We have heard lots of references to 2014 from people who seem quite desperate to leave. The fact is, if that is happening already, then it can become that potentially self-fulfilling cycle,'' he said.
''One significant factor is elite pessimism about the future of the country. You're not going to be able to convince Afghanistan's middle class to stay if their leaders are not going to stay.''
The signs of those people preparing to leave are already apparent in the capital. The bubble of Kabul property prices has well and truly burst, with values crashing about 50 per cent.
Valuables are also being spirited out of the country. There are reports of hundreds of gold bars being flown out on commercial flights.The director of the International Organisation for Migration in Afghanistan, Marco Boasso, agreed the departure of foreign forces would lead to a new wave of migration. ''We will see more movement of people … in 2014 because anxiety is there. There is a lot of uncertainty.''
Iran and Pakistan are likely to shoulder much of the Afghan asylum burden but regional attitudes have hardened.
Pakistan's government plans to cancel refugee visas in June and wants to repatriate as many as it can of the 1.7 million Afghan refugees living legally within its borders (1 million more are estimated to be in the country illegally).
A spokesman for the Immigration Minister, Chris Bowen, said: "A range of factors contribute to asylum seeker movements, including of course, situations in home countries, which can see numbers rise and fall in different parts of the world at different times."
with Bianca Hall and AFP
