This was not simply a figment of marriage equality advocates' imaginations. Or wishful thinking on the part of David Leyonhjelm.

The Liberal Democrat announced last week that he was going to kick start the parliamentary debate on his "freedom to marry" bill on Thursday. This, he said, should prompt Liberal MPs to discuss the free vote matter at their meeting on Tuesday.

The NSW libertarian says he picked this specific week because he was told it was time to move to the next stage of the process on his bill. By Liberal MPs.

Ahead of the meeting some Liberal supporters stressed that it did not matter if Prime Minister Tony Abbott did not put it on the agenda himself. Or that the National Party MPs would be in attendance at the get-together, too. Anyone could put the issue up for discussion once the meeting got going, they reasoned. And the presence of the Nats did not veto a Liberal debate.

But come Tuesday, the Coalition party room met with nary a peep about same-sex marriage. As a result, Leyonhjelm withdrew his debate spot on Thursday, saying it would be a "waste" and "artificial".

Those in favour of the status quo hailed it as a win. As a different-sex marriage supporter crowed, "is it fair to say the change-marriage-definition Liberals left David Leyonhjelm at the altar?"

What happened?

Leyonhjelm was absolutely befuddled by the fizzer.

"It was either a failure of nerves, or a failure of organisation," he said, after he'd had a few days to talk to people and mull things over.

The fact that some Liberal supporters of same-sex marriage were surprised when Leyonhjelm came out to announce he was bringing on the parliamentary debate suggests things were not particularly well co-ordinated at that end.

Another theory was there was simply too much on the agenda in the last week before the pre-budget break for same-sex marriage to get a look in. And that the Coalition did not want to distract from the NSW state election this Saturday.

In the wake of the no-show, some Liberals have said that they would actually prefer to wait a few months. This gets the party clear of state elections and the budget. And allows for momentum to build if there are further successful same-sex marriage reforms in Ireland and United States in the meantime.

However, much of this smacks of ipso facto justification. These reasons were known before last week and the prompting of Leyonhjelm to take action. (It's not like the state election came out of the blue.)

So where does does that leave same-sex marriage in the current Parliament?

Leyonhjelm himself is now thinking that he will not give his second reading speech until August, on the basis it is the next available option after the budget and the long winter break. He remains hopeful that a free vote can be secured.

Within the party, there is increasing pressure on Prime Minister Tony Abbott to honour his pre-election commitment that a free vote would be a matter for the post-election party room to decide. Some MPs talk darkly (but non-specifically) of "consequences" if he is seen to obstruct debate.

Momentum is also swinging in the direction of not just a free vote but support for the issue itself. As one frontbencher said this week, "[Liberal MPs] are definitely moving".

According to Australian Marriage Equality, which has been lobbying MPs and Senators one-on-one, 11 Liberal MPs have switched their positions to support same-sex marriage since the start of the year.

They are reluctant to state their positions publicly (preselections and all that), but they will be prepared to put their hands up if and when a free vote is allowed. Silent supporters also include senior ministers, who don't want to be seen to be campaigning against Abbott or the party's existing position.

All the while, same-sex marriage remains one of the most bizarre issues on the parliament's books. As MPs tie themselves up in knots over strategy, tactics and timings, most voters - including Liberal ones - have moved right on.

Not only do 72 per cent of voters support same-sex marriage according to a poll last year by the Liberal Party's own in-house pollster, but nearly 80 per cent of swing voters do as well.

This should provide heart to nervy MPs next time they think about deciding whether they should each get to decide on the matter of same-sex marriage.

Judith Ireland is a Fairfax Media journalist.