It's that time of year. The silly season when everyone puts out a list of predictions for what they think will happen in the next 12 months.
Some of them - based on years of experience and empirical analysis - are a trusty guide to what's in store, while others end up being pontificating howlers.
No one ever said predictions are easy: just ask an economist or the Bureau of Meteorology.
Rarely, however, do we hear what won't happen in the next 12 months, especially in a tech industry hellbent on innovation and being the first to coin the latest “next big thing”.
So this year we're flipping the regular predictions to bring you a few "anti-predictions" according to some of Australia's leading technology bosses.
There'll be no shortage of skills and innovation
Leading off is the question of whether Australia will face a shortage of technology talent in 2013 that will limit enterprise innovation. Indeed, the “do we or don't we have a skills shortage?” question is one that the industry debates every year.
For Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu director of information technology services, Raymond Danton, the issue isn't an issue, especially as many employees - even those not in the IT department - are tech savvy.
“Innovation often implies there will be a radical change in the way we all experience and see the world,” Danton said, adding that good ideas can come from anywhere or anyone.
“This means executive leadership teams have to be willing to embrace and accept innovation, and prepare their organisations for it. The inability to quickly adapt cultures to embrace innovation may instead become the biggest barrier to innovation, rather than IT talent itself.”
In a similar vein, Xtralis chief information officer Simarjit Chhabra said "cloud" will start to appear, not disappear from the vernacular, also in relation to skills.
“Predictions of shortage of 'cloud-centric technocrats' for business would be proved wrong as most infrastructure and application resources in the business will get trained or rebranded and we will see cloud-based titles on the increase in 2013,” he said.
Mobility will not be the cash cow
ACMA's acting CIO, Karl Maftoum, meanwhile, says mobility won't be the cash cow many device vendors expect it to be in 2013, with a consolidation of competitors to occur by the end of the year.
“My prediction is that by the end of 2013 it will be clear which direction the smartphone and tablet market will be heading in. It will be difficult to sustain the four key players in tablets and smartphones currently vying for a foothold in the business market,” Maftoum said.
While mobility is the pin-up boy and/or girl of the moment, and there is no shortage of examples of new strategies being deployed, the ACMA acting CIO doesn't believe everyone will be a winner.
“Overall, 2013 will be the make or break year for mobile device makers, by this time next year, the market will be substantially consolidated and the direction clear. “
Likewise, Ausenco CIO Paul Young said although the bring-your-own device (BYOD) trend would be strong in large enterprises, it isn't necessarily going to bring home the proverbial bacon many expect.
“BYOD over-hype will continue and it will have a slow organic take-up, but will not be real differentiator in an employee-business sense.”
Not so Big Data
Finally, Swisse head of IT and business intelligence, Andrew Millingen pointed to the buzziest of IT trends, Big Data, as being a little too much of a buzzword for most in 2013.
“No one can dispute that there are higher volumes of structured and unstructured data and many more sources,” Millingen said. “However until more governments open up access to a lot of this, big data is just going to be another item on a tech trend list for many companies. Even business intelligence consultants seem to cringe when they bring it up in conversation.”
Do you agree? Can you add to the non-predictions here?
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