Climate change and rising sea waters could wipe out much of the world's rice stocks and leave millions homeless in Thailand, a leaked US cable reveals.
The diplomatic cable, sent to ASEAN members and US departments last year, was part of the cache of tens of thousands of diplomatic documents issued by WikiLeaks last week.
In it, the US embassy in Bangkok flags the alarming prediction that rising sea levels will threaten Bangkok's 12million residents with inundation by 2050. The UN International Panel on Climate Change estimated sea levels would rise by between 18cm and 59cm by 2050.
Combining this with predictions of coastal erosion along the Gulf of Thailand, the US embassy said Bangkok could face ''regular flood waters up to 2m high''.
It reported that rising sea waters could also kill off the rice paddies of the Bangkok plains that contribute to Thailand's status as the world's largest rice exporter. ''Other Asian mega-cities such as Jakarta and Ho Chi Minh City face similar inundation scenarios.''
The cable observes that climate scientists and Bangkok administrators had costed ''climate-proofing'' the city at $US5billion ($A4.7 billion).
''Thai research indicates that climate change, sea level rise, flooding and subsidence are creating future disaster scenarios for Bangkok similar to New Orleans.''
At a February forum ''Is Bangkok Sinking?'', hosted by the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Thailand, Dutch planner Cor Dijkgraaf argued the city should build a dyke between the popular coastal resorts of Hua Hin and Pattaya, ''based on Netherlands designs ... to contain flood waters and protect the city from climate change sea level rise and storm or tsunami surges''.
But the Americans weren't convinced, pointing out the move would devastate shrimp and other fishery industries, and affect, ''if not strangle'', commercial fishing. ''BMA [Bangkok Metropolitan Administration] officials noted that the dyke is only one scenario under consideration but other ideas are few,'' the embassy noted.
''This is where the [American] expertise could play a significant role, in educating the Thais how dyking actions have had counterproductive effects in the US.''
Embassy staff also met a leading academic and climate activist, Anond Snidvongs, who has been working with APEC on climate change scenarios.
''[Dr] Anond explained that strategies to help Bangkok could adversely affect the important rice industries on the Bangkok plain,'' the embassy cable reported.
''He asserted that interagency planning to safeguard the citizens and infrastructure of Bangkok while maintaining the various economic sectors is relatively underdeveloped.
''While Bangkok has a long history of dealing with flooding, the impending sea level rise challenges urban planning beyond the city's current ability to cope.''
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