The first independent opinion poll taken since the Tasmanian state election was called shows the Liberal party headed for majority government on March 15.
The Liberals' 50 per cent support in the EMRS poll should give them 14 of the state's 25 House of Assembly seats, according to Hobart psephologist Kevin Bonham.
Dr Bonham said although the margin appeared slim, the lead is substantial as the Tasmanian Hare-Clark system worked against landslide majorities.
"At the moment, they would have to do quite a lot wrong to lose from here," he told Fairfax on Thursday.
Liberal leader Will Hodgman's 48 per cent personal support held steady, as voters appeared to reject Labor premier Lara Giddings, on 21 per cent, over her attempt to separate the ALP from the Greens by sacking two Greens ministers as she called the election.
"This may have had a small impact, but it hasn't changed things dramatically," Dr Bonham said.
Labor's 23 per cent support was little changed from the last poll in November, and the Greens dipped slightly to 17 per cent.
Dr Bonham said on these figures the Greens were likely to lose at least one of their five seats, with two others potentially "wobbly".
Despite a recent claim by the Palmer United Party that its internal polling showed it on course for majority government, EMRS found it had only 4 per cent backing.
"At the moment there's nothing there for them," Dr Bonham said. "They probably wouldn't get a seat. But they have some potential to surge during the campaign."
The poll was taken between February 5-8, before Ms Giddings on Wednesday announced a deteriorating state budget, with the current year's deficit blowing out by 65 per cent to $266.9 million, and greater deficits in years ahead.
Her failure to increase support substantially comes despite the recent stabilising of indicators such as unemployment, which in January held steady at 7.6 per cent in trend terms, the ABS said.
EMRS Chief Operations Director, Samuel Paske, said with almost a quarter of voters in the "soft voter" category, or yet to make up their minds, the remaining weeks of the campaign would be critical.