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Financial volatility hits consumer sentiment

09 Oct, 2008 01:00 AM
Financial and sharemarket volatility has been blamed for an 11 per cent drop in consumer sentiment.

The drop in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index for October was the 10th largest since the 1987 stockmarket crash.

Data for the index was collected before Tuesday's surprise 100 basis point cut in the central bank's key cash rate and decisions by banks to pass on 80 per cent of the cut to home-loan borrowers.

Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said the data indicated a ''strong positive message'' was required by the Reserve Bank.

''News on the sharemarket and the Australian dollar would have concerned consumers,'' he said.

''Both markets were volatile. It was probably the volatility that consumers found most disturbing, although the currency and the sharemarket were down around 4 per cent since the survey in September.''

The Reserve Bank board next meets on November 4.

Bank governor Glenn Stevens had indicated monetary conditions were still in the contractionary range, Mr Evans said.

''The variable mortgage rate is only back to its level at the beginning of this year.

''We expect that unless there is an unexpectedly swift improvement in credit conditions the [Reserve] bank will aim to move financial conditions back to neutral within the next three to six months. That is likely to require a further 100 basis points of cuts over that period.''

Another cut of 50 basis points in November seemed the most likely next move at this stage, Mr Evans said. AAP

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