THE AUSTRALIAN sharemarket has surged almost 30 per cent since March as some blue chips doubled or tripled in value, and strategists say it's time to let the profits run.
Technical indicators suggest that the local market is overbought and ripe for a correction, but Wall Street's influence could overrule local factors.
While a zig-zag pattern is likely as investors succumb to short periods of doubt and profit-taking, stockmarkets appear to be set for an extended period of gains.
AMP Capital Investors head of investment strategy Shane Oliver said, ''While it's possible shares may be getting a bit ahead of themselves in the very short-term and hence may be due for a pause, it's worth noting that before Lehman Brothers blew up last September the US S&P 500 was around 1200 and the Australian sharemarket was around 5000, which is about 20 per cent above current levels.
''We remain of the view that shares have embarked on a cyclical upswing that has much further to go.''
Fundamental information about Australian company profits and new earnings forecasts look set to take a back seat, unless they fit neatly into the bullish mainstream. Ahead of the peak period of the Australian profit-reporting season, the market consensus is for a 23 per cent fall in earnings per share over the 2008-09 financial year. That would make it the worst year for overall profits since 1990-91, when earnings per share fell 26per cent.
For more, pick up a copy of today's Canberra Times