Canberra Airport will shoulder more of Sydney Airport's aviation overload ahead of Richmond, Newcastle and Bankstown, managing director Stephen Byron says.
Canberra's curfew-free status gives it the edge over other airports, which are constrained by political fall-out from increased air traffic, fog and lack of infrastructure, he says.
Mr Byron believes passengers from Brisbane, Melbourne and Adelaide will make Canberra, now undergoing a $350 million terminal upgrade, a de facto second airport for Sydney and NSW.
Addressing the NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit in Sydney yesterday he said over the next 15 to 20 years many airline passengers who traditionally used Sydney Airport as a hub would switch to Canberra. Residents of the Shoalhaven, Southern Highlands and outer Sydney would find easier access to flights out of Canberra than Sydney Airport.
Airport capacity problems have surfaced again, with the Federal Government considering Richmond Air Force Base for commercial traffic to temporarily ease the pressure on Sydney Airport, which had an unprecedented three million passengers last month.
While the Board of Airline Representatives, on behalf of international airlines flying to and from Australia, welcomes Richmond as the site for Sydney's second airport, Mr Byron said political fall-out from residents would make it an unlikely permanent site.
He did not believe there would ever be an announcement, or tender, for a second Sydney airport.
''It is simply too hard politically to undertake any sort of formal process for the development of a new airport.'' Instead Newcastle, Richmond and maybe Bankstown would take up extra demand, with the most traffic coming to Canberra.
Transport Minister Anthony Albanese, launching the aviation green paper last December, said the Federal Government would search for a second airport site, heightening speculation about an airport in Goulburn linked by a very fast train.
But with the publication of the aviation white paper looming, such an option is likely to be too costly.
Mr Byron believes the air travel market will have a significant bearing on determining Sydney's second airport options.
''The people on the seats will decide,'' he told The Canberra Times.
''The business people flying from London to Sydney won't be flying to Canberra, no doubt about it. But the lower cost people, particularly from the southern half of Sydney, are a different story.''
Figures presented at yesterday's infrastructure summit showed direct flights from Canberra to Brisbane had risen by more than 250 per cent over 10 years, from 184,582 to 619,837. While growth in air travel and population explains much of that increase, Canberra's convenience over Sydney as a hub is also coming into the equation.
Mr Byron said people could fly direct to every state and territory capital from Canberra, reducing the reliance on Sydney.
''The important point about this is passengers can bypass Sydney Airport and hub through Canberra Airport instead, freeing up capacity at Sydney Airport.''
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