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 Carbon spike hits Kyoto gas pledge 

Carbon spike hits Kyoto gas pledge

29 Aug, 2008 07:54 AM
Australia's fossil fuel emissions are growing more than four times faster than figures quoted by the Federal Government, placing Australia's Kyoto target at risk.

Figures published online yesterday by one of the world's top authorities on greenhouse emissions shows Australia's total fossil fuel emissions jumped by 8.3 per cent from 93 million tonnes in 2004 to just over 100 million tonnes in 2005.

This includes a 12 per cent rise in carbon dioxide emissions from cement manufacture and from aviation and shipping.

These figures, calculated by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre in the United States, conflict with Federal Government claims that national fossil fuel emissions rose by only 2 per cent over the same period.

Australia has committed to meeting a target of 108 per cent of its 1990 emissions levels about 599 million tonnes annually by 2012.

But the centre's figures suggest this cannot be achieved.

They also question the accuracy of data used by the Rudd Government to shape its response to the challenges of climate change.

Australian National University's climate law and policy centre co-director Andrew Macintosh said, ''Are the federal figures accurate? That's the million-dollar question, but it does seem a bit odd that the numbers always seem to fall our way.''

The US centre, established more than 25 years ago, includes the World Data Centre for atmospheric trace gases and provides climate change data and analysis for the US Department of Environment.

Its latest figures show global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel burning have increased by 3.8 per cent, with Australia ranked as one of the world' top 10 polluters on per capita use of fossil fuels.

The director of the University of Adelaide's climate change research institute, Professor Barry Brook, said the centre's figures showed ''rhetoric about Australia being on track to meet its Kyoto target is just greenwash''.

The figures indicated Australia was ''doing nothing effective to stem its emissions'' beyond the Government's claims that land clearance had been halted.

''In terms of fuel use, [emissions are] spirally upwards at an alarming rate,'' Professor Brook said.

''The increase from 1990 levels is now tracking at 25.8 per cent based on fossil fuel usage.''

He said even a conservative projection based on the US centre's data suggested that by 2012, Australia fossil fuel emissions could be 37 per cent above 1990 levels.

Co-chairman of international climate change policy think-tank the Global Carbon Project Dr Mike Raupach said it was possible the 8.3 per cent increase was a data anomaly.

''However, it does remind us of Australia's long-term emission growth over the last two decades, which is around 2 per cent per year and is way, way too high.

''To achieve the kinds of global emissions reductions necessary to stabilise climate at safe levels, our emissions have to shrinking at several per cent per year rather than growing, and this needs to happen within a few years. Otherwise we will bequeath the next generation an impossible challenge,'' he said.

Mr Macintosh said the centre's figures showed the Rudd Government could not afford to delay urgent action on climate change until 2010, when it expects to introduce its carbon pollution reduction scheme.

A spokeswoman for federal Climate Change and Water Minister Penny Wong said the Government would not comment specifically until more was known about the US centre's data sources. Department of Climate Change estimates of fossil fuel emissions were prepared in accordance with international guidelines, published on its website and subject to international expert review.

''Our estimates were last updated in May. The estimate for emissions in Australia of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning for energy in 2006 was 366.4 million tonnes an increase of around 1 per cent on 2005. The emissions growth rate for 2005 over 2004 was 2 per cent,'' she said.

Greens climate change spokeswoman Christine Milne said the US figures showed Australia's emissions from coal and oil were out of control and raised concerns about whether it would be possible to avoid catastrophic, runaway climate change.

Australian Conservation Foundation climate campaigner Tony Mohr said the figures confirmed Australia's greenhouse emissions continued to head in the wrong direction.

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How long will it take the media to realise that it is not a change in CO2 in the atmosphere that alters ground and sea temperatures but rather the amount of condensed matter in the atmosphere and turbidity in the ocean. We all know that within one month diurnal variation at any location can vary between zero and at least 15 degrees depending on the amount of condensed water in the atmosphere and in some locations this variation can exceed thirty degrees. We should look at other things that have escalated in the past 50 years such as air travel and ocean turbidity. Why is the media so fond of showing pictures of cooling towers which are emitting only water.
Posted by stringer, 29/08/2008 8:57:11 AM
Good to see John Stanhope doing his bit to help his Federal partners Wong and Rudd by building a private gas-fired power station in Macarthur and a massive power station at Williamsdale. Isn't it about time we actually stopped the rhetoric, reduced our elcetrical consumption and stopped burning fossil fuels?
Posted by John H, 29/08/2008 11:54:32 AM
Sir The difference between the two estimates from the two sources is, in fact, a 'billion dollar question'. Reading your article I feel a strong urge to check some data on Australia's energy consumption. The data from ABARE shows that between 2003-04 and 2004-05, total energy consumption in Australia increased by 103 peta joules (PJ) or 1.9 per cent, from 5,422.4 PJ to 5,525.4 PJ. This is an encouraging sign considering an increase of 165.6 PJ or 3.1 per cent the preceding year. However, it is disheartening to see in the two years ensuing 2004-05, Australia's total energy consumption has risen by 114.9 PJ (2.1 per cent) and 129.5 PJ (2.3 per cent) in 2005-06 and 2006-07, respectively. Given those ABARE data, I suspect that the Federal Government claims that national fossil fuel emissions rose by only 2 per cent between 2004 and 2005 are based on the assumption that the mix of fuel consumption remained unchanged between the two reference years. This assumption is, of course, questionable because the rising petrol prices in those years have induced a number of large energy end-users to switch to coal -a more polluting source of energy- in industrial production. I'll go for the figures calculated by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre in the United States if asked.
Posted by Nguyen Dao, 29/08/2008 2:31:31 PM

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