The Great Barrier Reef has only a 50-50 chance of survival if global emissions are not cut by at least 25 per cent by 2020, according to a coalition of Australian climate change scientists.
By 2050, global emissions will have to be reduced 90 per cent below 2000 levels to keep the reef alive.
As negotiations over an emissions trading scheme continue, Climate Change Alliance scientists will brief politicians from all sides today that the reef is facing a bleak future.
The Alliance, which is led by Federation of Australian Scientific and Technological Societies president Ken Baldwin, will warn MPs and senators that the reef is on the frontline of climate change.
University of Queensland Alliance member John Quiggin's research has focused on the economic impact of a two degree rise in global temperatures.
He said a rise of more than two degrees would be ''catastrophic'' for the reef and tourism in North Queensland.
The Great Barrier Reef is estimated to contribute $5.4 billion each year to the Australian economy.
Professor Baldwin said setting a 25 per cent target would give Australia the moral high ground in arguing for emissions cuts at the upcoming climate conference in Copenhagen.
''If we don't take the lead, we can't exert the moral high ground and call for cuts to save the Great Barrier Reef. Our aim is to put the science on the table and to do that while these changes are being decided,'' he said.
But he was reluctant to comment on the Rudd Government's emissions trading scheme, which guarantees cuts of just 5 per cent.
''We don't make any party political judgements, we are simply saying, irrespective of the politics, that the Great Barrier Reef will only survive if greenhouse gas emissions are reduced by at least 25 per cent and even then that only gives it an even money chance,'' he said. ''This a specific report, irrespective of the arrangements in the ETS, the one focus that has to be considered is the overall reduction in emissions.''
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