An overwhelming number of voters would prefer money spent on health and education than tax cuts, according to an exclusive Canberra Times poll.
Almost nine out of 10 voters surveyed in the marginal seat of Eden-Monaro would have preferred the budget largesse directed to hospitals, schools and such services, suggesting the Coalition and Labor have miscued their election strategies by promising more than $30billion in tax cuts.
The results held true for both Labor and conservative voters, with 88 per cent of all those polled in favour of health and education spending, 10 per cent preferring tax cuts and only 2 per cent undecided. Coalition voters wanted spending on services instead of tax cuts by a ratio of 4:1.
The poll, conducted by Patterson Market Research early last week, found the trend was most pronounced among those aged 40 or over (90-7), women (91-8) and Labor voters (97-2).
The pollster said Labor, which largely mirrored the Government package four days after it was issued, had missed a "golden opportunity" to differentiate itself from the Coalition.
It also signals a further ratcheting up of pressure on Prime Minister John Howard on the economic front, an area still seen as his Government's greatest strength.
Mr Howard sought yesterday to bat away questions about his previous promises and the prospect of another interest rate rise. Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd had seized on a 2004 transcript in which Mr Howard personally endorsed a commitment to keep rates at 30-year lows, replicating the Liberal advertisement from which the Prime Minister has sought to distance himself during this year's campaign.
Mr Howard was also scampering to shore up cabinet unity after reports yesterday that Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull deliberately leaked information that he was urging the Prime Minister to sign the Kyoto Protocol.
The Canberra Times poll comes after the Government chose the first full day of the election campaign to unveil a $34 billion five-year package that reduced tax rates to 15, 30, 35 and 40 per cent by 2013, while simultaneously pushing the effective tax-free threshold up to $20,000.
Labor largely matched the Government plan, delivering $31 billion in cuts over six years but holding off tax cuts for very high-income earners to instead establish a tax rebate for education and to spend on measures to cut hospital waiting lists.
The poll indicates the diversion by Labor of $2.9 billion of the tax cuts will be a vote winner, and that Mr Rudd could have spent much more on basic services.
The results are likely to embolden Mr Rudd in his already frequent claims that he will not be matching government spending dollar for dollar during the election campaign.
Patterson Market Research said that the "big picture" tax strategy seemed to have had "almost no beneficial effect in Eden-Monaro".
"It would appear that not only did the Government mis-read the mood of the people on what to do with the budget surplus, the ALP it would seem lost a golden opportunity to differentiate itself from the Government by not allocating significantly greater proportions of the budget surpluses to improvements of the delivery of health and education," the research said.
Greens leader Bob Brown dismissed Treasurer Peter Costello's description of the tax cuts as "radical", saying Labor's copycat approach had left his party as "the real economic conservatives".
"Besides climate change solutions, we would put those billions into schools, hospitals and housing," Senator Brown said at the Greens' policy launch yesterday.
An Ipsos poll for Channel 10's Meet The Press found the Coalition's tax package had done little to sway voters, with only 12 per cent saying it would make them more likely to vote for the Coalition, while 11 per cent said it made them less likely to, with 58 per cent saying it would not affect their vote.
Labor's tax plans received a slightly more favourable response, with Ipsos noting 22 per cent saying they were more likely to vote Labor, 8 per cent less likely and 55 per cent saying it would not change their intention.
The Canberra Times poll showed Labor leading the Coalition as the preferred performer on a range of policy questions, except for economic management.
Labor led on health (51-20), industrial relations (73-19), the war in Iraq (60-19) and climate change (68-12).
While the Coalition remained in front on economic management (56-26), pollster Keith Patterson pointed strongly to the way Eden-Monaro voters had rated other issues, particularly health and climate change as far more important to them than the state of the overall economy.
The high preference for Labor on the war might be partly attributable to the choice of former army colonel Mike Kelly, who served in Iraq, as its candidate.
As reported by The Canberra Times on Saturday, Dr Kelly is tipped to win the seat with a margin of 6 per cent, unseating minister Gary Nairn.
Dr Kelly led Mr Nairn 48-41 on the primary vote (after the allocation of undecided voters), translating into a 56-44 two-party-preferred result, a bigger margin than any of those Mr Nairn has enjoyed in his four victories in the seat since 1996.
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