Families would fork out $70 more a year for private health insurance as a result of a controversial decision by the Federal Government, the ''father of Medicare'' said yesterday.
Australian National University professor John Deeble said individuals would also pay about $45 extra annually for health cover.
Health Department deputy secretary David Kalisch admitted Australians were likely to pay more for private health insurance in the wake of changes to the Medicare levy surcharge.
But premium increases would be ''considerably lower'' than the 5 per cent rise predicted by economists and Professor Deeble.
Professor Deeble and Mr Kalisch were two of several witnesses who gave evidence yesterday to the Senate Economics Committee.
The committee is conducting an inquiry into the Government's change to the Medicare levy surcharge imposed on some people without private health cover.
The Government intends to lift the thresholds by $50,000, which means singles can earn $100,000 and couples can bring in $150,000 before they pay the surcharge.
Critics including the Australian Medical Association argue it will intensify pressure on the overstretched public hospital system, encourage people to dump their private health cover and drive up premiums.
Mr Kalisch said the Government's change would have a ''small impact'' on premiums.
''I have to say it's nowhere near the 5 per cent range that a number of people have talked about ... it's probably less than half that,'' he said.
Access Economics and Professor Deeble predicted premiums would increase by 5 per cent as a result of the changes.
Mr Kalisch said the department expected a ''modest'' impact on public hospitals.
Professor Deeble said public hospitals would treat about 100,000 more inpatients annually under the ''worst-case scenario''. And the bill for public hospitals would increase by about $360million a year.
Opposition health spokesman Joe Hockey said $360 million was a significant sum that could be spent on other health services. ''Anything that increases insurance premiums and increases the number of people relying on public hospitals must be seen as bad policy,'' he said.
Health Minister Nicola Roxon defended the change to the surcharge, saying many claims about the impact were exaggerated. ''If the insurance companies produce attractive, affordable policies, then people will continue to buy them,'' Ms Roxon said. ''Any premium increases will have to be approved by the Commonwealth, and I have made clear to the insurance companies that I will not accept their attempts to use this as an excuse to hike premiums.''