One million Australian jobs could be lost overseas if the Rudd Government fails to get its greenhouse gas emissions trading scheme right, the country's leading business group has warned.
In its submission to the Government's green paper on a carbon pollution reduction scheme, out today, the Australian Industry Group says its members are ''gravely concerned that Australia will move too fast and too far ahead of the rest of the world''.
The Ai Group wants the emissions trading delayed by a year, more favourable treatment for businesses and nuclear power on the table as part of the solution to climate change.
It also wants petrol to face the full brunt of emissions trading, which would push the price up.
And it wants Australia to aim to cut its greenhouse emissions by anything up to 10 per cent by 2020. This compares with the 25per cent cut recommended by Federal Government adviser Ross Garnaut in the context of a strong global climate pact.
The Ai Group's submission focuses on the effect of the trading scheme on trade-exposed industries.
The group's associate director (public policy), Peter Burn, said the one million jobs was a worst-case scenario.
''Not all that would be under threat. All of it is trade-exposed so, in a sense, it's very hard to discern where the job losses would be.''
The design of trade-exposed measures would be critical.
''The more well targeted and well designed those measures are, that number can reduce and it can reduce significantly,'' he said.
''Very well-designed measures for the trade-exposed, which is what we're aiming for, would minimise the risk to those million-odd jobs.
''We don't want to be alarmist about it but, yes, there are substantial threats of job losses.''
While maintaining support for a broadly based emissions-trading scheme, linked to others around the world, the Ai Group says that the Climate Change Action Fund should have a clear focus on measures for trade-exposed industries.
The group, which has members in a range of such industries including engineering, construction, manufacturing and transport proposes that trade-exposed industries to obtain 25per cent of the permits to trade in carbon pollution.
The submission, which includes case studies from various industries, says many AIG members ''operate in sectors whose competitive margins have been eroded by the combined impact of cheaper production from emerging economies and the commodity-price-fuelled Australian dollar''.
AIG chief executive Heather Ridout said, ''Unless business can have greater confidence in this central part of the scheme, pressures will build for alternative approaches such as specific exemptions and border tariffs. These alternative approaches are, at most, third or fourth best options.''
The submission differs with the targets embraced by Government adviser Ross Garnaut in his final report, out last week.
Professor Garnaut said Australia's fair share of a worldwide agreement to cut carbon in the atmosphere to 550 parts per million would be 10per cent of 2000 levels by 2020 and 80per cent by 2050.
''Australia should also offer to play its full part in an ambitious agreement. Its fair share of a 450-parts-per-million agreement would be to reduce emissions by 25per cent from 2000 levels by 2020 and by 90per cent by 2050.''
The Ai Group submission said a cut of only 60per cent by 2050 would require ''a fundamental change in the direction of Australia's economic development.
''After allowing for GDP and population growth, meeting this target will require us reducing the emissions intensity of our economy by around 75per cent.
''It would be futile if Australia reduced its own emissions only to see them shift to other countries where a requirement to reduce carbon pollution was absent.''
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