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It's worse than we thought

04 Nov, 2008 04:29 PM
Captain Glenn Stevens addresses the crew from the flight deck of RBA 1:

"Well chaps, situation's a bit tougher than previously advised. Europe's been pretty badly shot up, the Americans have been wiped out, financial markets have cut and run and now the Chinese are taking some casualties. Rotten luck really.

"As for ourselves, we've copped some flak from deteriorating international conditions - that'll explain the starboard engine being on fire. And falling commodity prices have knocked out the radar, so we're flying a little slower and lower than the flight plan recommended. But we are still flying and that's the main thing - unlike those other poor devils.

"All in all, nothing that a good stiff upper lip and a dose of monetary bombs-away won't improve. We've just dropped a 75 pointer, a bit heavier than the enemy was expecting. We're returning to base to reload and we'll have another crack at it next month. Now let's all join in a rousing verse or two of It's a Long Way to Tipperary!''

Or something very much like that. With the markets primed for a 50-point cut, the RBA surprised for the second month in a row with a larger-than-expected easing, taking its cash rate down 75 points to 5.25%.

By the tone of Governor Stevens' statement, it seems to have once again been something of a last-minute decision to increase the cut.

"In Australia, the overall path of economic activity appears until recently to have been close to what the Board had expected, with a needed moderation in demand occurring after a period of earlier strength,'' Stevens said.

But then on came the dampeners from "deteriorating international conditions and falling commodity prices'' so "on balance, it appears likely that spending and activity will be weaker than earlier expected''.

What the RBA has again done though is to send a clear message that it's prepared to do whatever it takes to avoid a recession. It wasn't worried about Australia slowing a little from unsustainable growth rates, but now it's serious.

As Stevens says in his concluding sentence:

"The Board will continue to monitor developments and make adjustments as needed to promote sustainable growth consistent with achieving the 2-3 per cent inflation target over time.''

In other words, don't worry about inflation - it'll get there eventually - we're cutting and will keep cutting to keep out of the flying.

What was noteworthy about today's statement though was the specific mention of "further signs that China and other parts of the developing world are slowing as well''.

I'd guess that's where the extra 25 points came from today. The RBA remains a big believer in the China story - the industrialisation and urbanisation of emerging economies. Until China produces policies for more significant domestic stimulus, Captain Stevens will just keep dropping.

Michael Pascoe is a BusinessDay contributing editor

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