If Tony Abbott snatches the Liberal leadership, Kevin Rudd will have no choice but to call a double dissolution election based on climate change.
That was the clear but unspoken message last night in Malcolm Turnbull's gutsy speech, one of his best.
''It would be a catastrophe for us,'' he warned, referring to the Liberals being branded as a party of climate change deniers.
At times he appeared surreal - no doubt in shock - as he floated above the chaos as a huge chunk of his front bench deserted. It was a very public humiliation, and Turnbull knows he is all but a dead man walking.
His supporters were also in shock last night from the barrage of emails and phone calls that jammed their offices demanding that Turnbull resign. It was an orchestrated attack - the moderates believe came from the conservative side of their party in Queensland.
On cue, Tony Abbott and Nick Minchin waltzed into Turnbull's office after question time to deliver their bombshell - he must recant his climate change beliefs or face the wrath of the sceptics and deniers. It wasn't put in that language but the message was clear.
Last night the newly resurgent conservative bloc was sticking to a script -that they knew nothing about a leadership spill. Pigs might fly but that line won't.
They would like to install Abbott as leader as early as this morning to head off the vote on the emissions trading scheme legislation. As the Liberal Party melted down last night, the Government turned up the heat, demanding a vote in the Senate by 3.45 this afternoon. But the Government is unlikely to have the numbers to guillotine debate and force a vote.
However, the Government needs just seven Liberal senators to support the Bill.
It seemed likely last night that seven would support the Bill but that might become a bridge too far if Abbott takes over this morning and puts pressure on them.
Moderate Liberals were firm last night that they had could raise seven, but the situation was so fluid and chaotic that no outcome could be predicted with certainty.
Michael Johnson was the first to publicly call last night for Turnbull to stand down, at 8.40.
He put the bleeding obvious - that Turnbull's position was untenable.
Which means Joe Hockey will have to make a big decision.
Can he raise the numbers to win and drag the Liberal brand away from the grasp of the climate change deniers?
They seem to think if they don't agree with a policy, they should change the party. But a Turnbull supporter said last night that changing the policy would be electoral suicide.
It is up to Turnbull to call the meeting to decide his future and he was being advised to leave that until next week in the hope that Liberals would have time to soberly reflect on whether they wanted to commit electoral suicide. Or not.
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