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 Poll results no comfort to Labor or Liberals 

Poll results no comfort to Labor or Liberals

4/10/2008 10:38:00 AM
How does Deputy Chief Minister Shane Rattenbury sound?

It's the ACT Greens' lead candidate's third attempt to get into the Assembly, and while he was pipped at the post the other two times by just 48 votes in 2001 he is set to be the ACT's new king-maker.

The Greens have made no secret that they would consider forming a coalition with either side of the political equation.

However, Mr Rattenbury says he is ''willing to work with a party that shared [Greens'] values and visions and is willing to work with us on our program as well as theirs,'' but he will not make a decision on whom to support as chief minister before the election.

That opens the door for Liberal leader Zed Seselja. It takes something different to normal Tory politics for the Liberals to win in Labor-leaning Canberra, and it is not out of the question for Mr Seselja to try to outbid Mr Stanhope for the Greens' support.

The Greens will have to take note of the hefty whack the electorate is delivering to Labor after four years of majority government.

Labor is suffering big swings against it across the board. It is down almost 9percentage points in Brindabella and 12.3points in Molonglo, but the biggest hit comes in Mr Stanhope's electorate of Ginninderra, where the massive 2004 result of 50.1per cent is set to drop by 16points to 34per cent.

Although the Liberals have made ground in the outer electorates, especially Brindabella where they are up 5.6points, the electorate appears to be expressing concern about whether they are ready to take over. They are set to take a 3.6point backward step in Molonglo, where they lost their highest-polling candidate, Richard Mulcahy, after dumping him from the party.

The Greens have been the biggest recipients of anti-Labor sentiment.

The fact Labor is still likely to maintain power despite these big hits is testament to the size of its 2004 win, when it became the first single-party majority government in ACT history. Labor MLAs Karin MacDonald and Wayne Berry are, in effect, taking one for the team.

Their decisions not to recontest will likely spare Labor's other sitting members from being dumped although the Hare-Clark system is notorious for springing surprises.

One place Labor could lose a sitting member is Molonglo, where although it is likely to get three seats, it is so far only guaranteed two. Three of its ministers sit here.

Education Minister Andrew Barr will be the most nervous. He is yet to win an election and only got in on a countback after the retirement of Ted Quinlan.

He would normally expect a better result with the name recognition that goes with being on the front bench, but a lot of that is associated with his first task of closing 23 schools.

Despite the bad news for Labor, these results will be particularly disappointing for the Liberals.

After years of bitter infighting, Mr Seselja has managed to create a united front and get some traction on Jon Stanhope and his team.

However, one conclusion you could draw from the figures is that, as well as Mr Seselja is doing, there is still some reticence from the community to believe in his team or perhaps to believe his team is really behind him.

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