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PS wage rises put pressure on rates

19 Nov, 2009 08:51 AM
Surging public service wages could help force the Reserve Bank to raise interest rates, an economist warns.

New figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed wages grew by 0.7per cent in the September quarter, giving a 3.6per cent annual rate (and a 3.7per cent in the ACT). This was the slowest growth in five years, but CommSec economist Savanth Sebastian said there was a ''large divergence between wage growth in the private and public sector''.

''The latest data has confirmed that it has been the private sector that has done all the heavy lifting, cutting wages and keeping a lid on inflation. Private-sector wages are growing at the slowest pace [at 3.2per cent] in over seven years in stark contrast to the public sector, where wages are growing at the fastest pace [4.6per cent] in five years,'' he said.

''The question needs to be asked, has productivity by public servants been that strong to justify far stronger wage growth than achieved by employees in private-sector businesses? Unlikely. It is hard to believe that the public sector has been so much more efficient over the year, and deserves to have such a large lift in wages.''

Governments of all levels should be questioned about whether public service wage rises were excessive, he said. This would create inflationary pressures, which would ''only add to the Reserve Bank's need to raise interest rates''.

However, ANZ economist Julie Toth said there was nothing in the data to ''persuade the RBA to alter its path of gradually returning monetary policy toward a more normal setting''.

Westpac economist Anthony Thompson said wage growth should remain subdued through the first half of next year, because the unemployment rate had not yet peaked, however, JP Morgan economist Helen Kevans tipped the earlier-than-previously expected peak meant wages would accelerate through 2010.

''Skill shortages and capacity constraints will again rear their heads, and certainly take a prominent position on the RBA's policy radar,'' she said.

Treasurer Wayne Swan said last night that minimising the destruction of the skill base by effectively saving about 200,000 jobs through the stimulus measures meant Australia was better placed than any other country to take advantage of the recovery.

''The lesson of previous recessions is clear: unemployment takes a lot longer to go down than to go up.

''It can leave a path of social devastation in its wake, condemning people and their communities to social and economic exclusion that can last decades and be a major cost to society.

''We still have a long way to go to build the human capital we need for the future, but we don't start as far behind as we could have.''

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