Chief Minister Jon Stanhope's Labor Party is set to lose up to three ACT Legislative Assembly seats and Mr Stanhope will have to rely on the Greens' support to keep his job, according to an exclusive poll.
The Patterson-Canberra Times poll, conducted this week, points to the end of majority government on October 18 and finds the ACT Greens will be the big winner on election day, increasing their representation fourfold and getting to decide who takes power.
Today's poll also gives Labor and the Liberals six MLAs each, although there is one seat still up for grabs in the central electorate of Molonglo. Despite a swing of about 10percentage points against it in every electorate since the 2004 election, this key position is most likely to fall to Labor, but the result will hinge on how independents' preferences flow.
The Greens will double their re-presentation in this electorate, and pick up a seat in each of Ginninderra and Brindabella.
The results show none of the independents nor new parties including sitting Canberra Party MLA and former Liberal Richard Mulcahy have a realistic chance.
However, the poll does show there is still a great deal of uncertainty in the community and many voters have yet to make up their mind, meaning the next fortnight will be crucial in determining who ultimately forms government.
Patterson Market Research managing director Keith Patterson said the most likely result was a coalition government between the ALP and the Greens.
''Only in the event that these two parties, with a historical pattern of working together, are unable to form government, would there be a slim possibility of a minority Liberal and independent government in the ACT. We regard this as a very unlikely outcome,'' he said.
Interestingly, the poll suggests that one of Labor's three ministers in Molonglo Deputy Chief Minister Katy Gallagher, Attorney-General Simon Corbell and Education Minister Andrew Barr has a real risk of losing his or her seat.
The seventh seat in the electorate could go to almost anyone, although it is most likely to be one of the three main players.
''Regardless of the outcome of that final seat, however, neither the ALP nor the Liberals will have sufficient support to form government, to the effect that the Greens will hold the balance of power in the ACT, with at least five, and possibly six seats,'' he said.
''However, we believe that the most likely outcome is that the ALP will end up with seven seats, the Liberals six and the Greens four.''
This assumes Labor picks up the last seat in Molonglo. As it stands, Labor will get 2.6 quotas, or 33per cent of the vote, to the Liberals' 29per cent, giving them 2.3 quotas. This is traditionally the Greens' strongest seat, although they are set to boost their result from 11.5per cent in 2004 to 23per cent this time. That would give them 1.8 quotas.
This is after the 9per cent of undecided votes have been distributed according to which party the respondent would prefer formed government.
''The aggregate of the minor parties and independents of 16per cent has the potential to deliver the Greens a second quota, and perhaps Labor a third quota. Unless all of the independents band together in preference swaps, it is unlikely that there would be an independent member holding the balance of power in the Assembly,'' Mr Patterson said.
Former Queanbeyan mayor Frank Pangallo is in the best position to be that unlikely independent.
He is polling at 3per cent, ahead of former MLA Helen Cross on 2.5per cent, and Canberra Party MLA Richard Mulcahy, the Australian Motorist Party and the Liberal Democrats on 2per cent each.
The polling suggests most of these preferences are likely to flow to the Liberals, although Mr Patterson said Labor and the Greens' head starts on the primary vote meant this would probably not be enough for Opposition Leader Zed Seselja to win a third seat here. ''Molonglo will be a very difficult electorate to predict, with there genuinely being three possible outcomes,'' he said.
This was exacerbated by the fact almost a quarter of all voters were at least quite uncertain about how they would vote, including 9per cent who do not have a preference at all yet.
''In essence, one in four voters in Molonglo could move one way or another over the ensuing election campaign. Molonglo is very unstable, and the outcome of the election rests effectively on how their preferences will vary over the coming fortnight,'' he said.
In the southern seat of Brindabella, Labor and the Liberals are equal on 34per cent of the primary vote, with the Greens on 16per cent and other parties on 7per cent. If the 8per cent of people who don't know are allocated, according to which party they would prefer forms government, the Liberals come out in front 38 to 37per cent, with the Greens on 18per cent.
This would give the Greens one quota 16.67per cent of the vote and the major parties two each.
''However, it is interesting to note that amongst the minor party players, 42per cent would prefer a Labor government, 27per cent would prefer a Green government and 10per cent the Canberra Liberals,'' he said.
However, Mr Patterson said there was still plenty of room for the Liberals to catch up.
''It appears that there is a strong prospect that voters will move their allegiances as the election nears.
''It would appear that for 14per cent of the voters [about one in seven] there is a considerable level of uncertainty,'' he said.
The shock departure of long-serving Liberal MLA Bill Stefaniak appears to have had no material effect on the result in his Belconnen-based seat of Ginninderra.
Labor and the Liberals are neck-and-neck on 32per cent of the primary vote, with the Greens on 15per cent, just short of the 16.7per cent required for a seat.
However, after the 9per cent of undecideds are included, the major parties rise to 34per cent and the Greens to 16per cent.
''This looks very much like Labor and Canberra Liberals will each pick up two quotas, and the Greens will pick up the last one,'' Mr Patterson said.Independent and former radio host Mark Parton is the best performing of the other candidates, on 5per cent.
Similarly to the other electorates, a lot of people are not certain of how they will vote, with 20per cent at least ''quite uncertain''.