Voters tend to unfairly punish or reward state and territory governments for the condition of the global economy, according to Canberra researchers.
Australian National University economist Andrew Leigh and Mark McLeish have trawled through data from 191 state and territory elections to investigate how voters respond to economic conditions.
They found a ''bit of venting'' at the ballot box, with state and territory governments blamed for conditions that were outside their control.
Their report comes as ACT voters prepare to head to the ballot box on October 18 and the US is in the grip of an economic crisis.
''Our model was just about purely how does the unemployment rate on the day of the poll relate to the government's chances of re-election,'' Dr Leigh said.
''On that metric, you'd think that the ACT Government is heading for being returned and certainly that's what the betting markets say.
''It would be unfair if ACT voters threw out [Chief Minister] Jon Stanhope for factors unrelated to his performance.
''It's perfectly reasonable to keep or get rid of governments for things they've done. It seems though, in our study, that voters systematically make mistakes and that the state of the US economy does matter.''
Mr McLeish said it was the first study to show that economic conditions affected the outcomes of state and territory elections.
''But what is most striking is that voters do not tend to filter out the performance of the national economy when deciding whether or not to re-elect a state government,'' he said. ''Voters are not entirely irrational. If a state outperforms the national economy, its government is more likely to be re-elected.
''But when the Australian economy booms, all state governments are more likely to be re-elected even although they probably can't take much credit for the boom.
''Indeed, when the United States economy does well, Australian state governments are more likely to be re-elected.''
The researchers found no evidence that voters used state elections to send ''a message to Canberra''.
But state and territory governments were less likely to be ousted if the Federal Government was of the same political party.
The study found unemployment had a strong impact on election outcomes, with each additional percentage point of unemployment reducing the incumbent government's re-election probability by 3-5 per cent.
Dr Leigh said voters did a ''bit of venting'' at the ballot box an observation backed by ''terrific'' political science research.
''[It] suggests that ... a spate of shark attacks prior to the 1916 US presidential election actually had an influence on the election outcome,'' Dr Leigh said.
''I think when people see bad things happening in the world, then they take it out in the ballot box. Our results are consistent with what psychologists call fundamental attribution error.
''Just as CEOs tend to be overpaid when the whole sharemarket booms, Australian voters mistakenly reward state governments when the national economy booms.''