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 Summertime: Reserve takes it easy 

Summertime: Reserve takes it easy

17 Dec, 2008 06:48 AM
The Reserve Bank slashed interest rates this month so its board could avoid meeting during the January holidays.

This extraordinary revelation is included in the minutes of the December Reserve Bank board meeting, which also indicates Australian households are likely to be waiting at least a few months for further cuts to their mortgage repayments.

After cutting the official cash rate by one percentage point this month, the Reserve looks likely to wait and see how the economy reacts to recent events before moving again on monetary policy.

Since September, the RBA has slashed the official cash rate by 300 basis points to 4.25 per cent, its lowest level in seven years.

The rate cut coincides with $8.7billion worth of pre-Christmas payments to pensioners and families, part of the Rudd Government's economic stimulus package, as well as falling petrol prices.

The minutes show the Reserve Bank board suggested it might let these events, described as ''significant stimulus'', percolate before deciding whether to move again on the cash rate.

''The size of the response to date was judged to be such that a period of assessment of local and overseas events was warranted over the summer,'' the bank said.

ANZ Bank head of Australian economics Warren Hogan said the minutes showed the Reserve wanted time off.

''The minutes of the last RBA board meeting show that the 100-b.p. rate cut was aimed at getting policy to a clearly stimulatory setting ahead of the two-month summer break. Clearly, the RBA wants the summer off.''

The board's minutes say, ''Members took account of the fact a board meeting was not typically scheduled in January. Members judged the two-month break between meetings was one consideration in favour of a substantial reduction in rates at this meeting.''

The minutes were issued as new data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the sharpest decline in housing starts for nearly eight years.

Central banks worldwide have been more active in recent months than at any time since World War II.

Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens said recently the board was not scheduled to meet over the January break.

But he added he would not be far from the office, ''and I have their phone numbers: I can get them if need be''.

The Reserve revised down its inflation estimate from a headline figure of 3 per cent for mid-2009 to 2 per cent, also estimating that household wealth had shrunk by 11 per cent in the year to December.

Westpac chief economist Bill Evans predicted rates would fall by another 1 per cent next year but in smaller steps.

''We would expect at least a further 150 basis points of rate cuts in the February-to-June 2009 period, with the next move being a 50-basis-points cut on February 3,'' Mr Evans said yesterday.

Housing industry groups called on the Government yesterday to do more to stimulate the industry after news of the biggest drop in housing starts since 2001.

The number of dwelling commencements in the September quarter fell by 10.7 per cent to 35,425, according to ABS figures published yesterday.

The ACT defied the negative trend with housing starts up 77 per cent in the quarter.

This contrasted with declines of 25 per cent in NSW and 22 per cent in Queensland, but ABS statisticians played down the volatile ACT figure.

Housing Industry Association chief economist Harley Dale said the annual level of housing starts had fallen to 141,700, well below the HIA's estimate for underlying housing demand of about 190,000 housing starts a year.

Master Builders Australia chief economist Peter Jones said recent rate cuts and federal initiatives were welcome but ''more action is need to attract homebuyers and investors back into the market''.

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