It is summer in Washington DC, and the imperial architecture of the city is set off by the verdant parkland. The capital is buzzing with business as the Congress goes into overdrive before the hot, humid dog days of August hit and everyone leaves town.
The media is highlighting the slump in house prices and the rising cost of fuel and foods, but these concerns are not reflected in the advertising for large houses and vehicles, the chill blast of air conditioning, a rush-hour crisis each day on the roads, and the oversized servings in many restaurants.
America worries about energy shortages and global warming but there is little in the way of policies or action to tackle these problems. The current flurry of legislative activity is mostly because the members of Congress who face re-election in November are responding to public concerns about a stagnant political agenda that is a direct consequence of the current poisonous partisan environment.
Hillary Clinton, having put her presidential campaign aside, is back at work in the Senate. Today she will campaign with the Democrat presidential candidate-elect, Barack Obama, in the aptly named New Hampshire town of Unity.
Meanwhile the Republican candidate, John McCain, is criss-crossing the nation talking about his energy policies. The general campaign for president is underway, and Washington conversations inevitably turn to who will win, after due commiserations on the cost of filling the tank of the family car and delivery premiums on fast food.
A poll last weekend showed Obama up 15 points on McCain, but most recent polls have consistently shown only a 4-5 point lead to Obama.
Given that it is a horrific environment for a Republican candidate 71 per cent of Americans think the country is on the wrong track, President Bush's ratings are below 30 per cent, and consumer confidence is the lowest in 16 years it is amazing that the race is apparently this close. This is assuredly only because McCain has an identity that is very different from the damaged brand of the Republican Party.
The American people are clearly demanding change through this presidential election, and the polls show that they would prefer a Democrat to effect this change. It seems that change alone is enough and that specific policies on Iraq, health care and energy are not very relevant in deciding votes.
If change simply means someone who is not a Bush or a Clinton, then John McCain may be enough, despite his position on Iraq. But if change is about a new leader and new ideas, then Obama wins.
The threat for Obama is that he is still seen as an unknown risk for many voters. He himself must counter this, or the blank slate on his positions will be filled in by the Republicans' scare campaigns, which are already ramping up.
The prevailing mood of Washington Democrats is cautious but optimistic. More than one authoritative pundit has said that the there are two possible outcomes: either it's very close, or Obama wins by a mile.
The fact is that the election is still five months away, and much can and will happen between now and November when these two very atypical candidates face the voters.
However, those looking for a sign might take hope from the sales of rhinestone McCain and Obama pins at the expensive costume jewellery store in ritzy Georgetown Obama pins are outselling those of his rival by three to one.
Dr Russell worked as a senior political advisor in the US House of Representatives in Washington from 1984-1991.
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