LABOR MLA Jon Stanhope's popularity as ACT Chief Minister has plummeted since the 2004 election, down more than 20percentage points since his landslide win.
The exclusive Patterson-Canberra Times poll reveals Mr Stanhope still has a slim lead on relative newcomer, Liberal Leader Zed Seselja, as preferred chief minister, 41.6per cent to 40per cent. It is a long drop from the same poll's results in 2004, when Mr Stanhope hammered then Liberal leader Brendan Smyth 63per cent to 19per cent. Mr Smyth is now Deputy Opposition Leader.
The results come after the poll showed Labor was likely to retain government, but it would lose up to three seats including possibly one of its three ministers in Molonglo and would need to rely on Greens preferences to stay in power.
Labor and the Liberals were predicted to get six seats each and the Greens four, with the last seat too close to call, but likely to go to Labor. Patterson Market Research managing director Keith Patterson said Mr Seselja was ahead of Mr Stanhope in Brindabella, where he has a 43-41 lead.
''It is significant that the current leader doesn't hold a significant advantage over his apparent challenger. This is unusual in any political arena. The incumbent normally has a significant advantage over his would-be challenger in the 'preferred leader' stakes.
''The fact that Jon Stanhope does not appear to have a significant advantage over Zed Seselja in Brindabella suggests he is significantly adrift of the norm in terms of popularity.''
Mr Stanhope has a slender lead in Mr Seselja's electorate Molonglo, 41-39, and is further in front in his home seat of Ginninderra, 43-38.
Throughout the ACT, 10per cent of respondents preferred neither candidate, 2.6per cent would like either man and 5.9per cent did not know.
The poll also looked at how Canberrans perceived Mr Stanhope's leadership. Almost three out of five believed he was a strong leader, and 56per cent believed he was passionate and that he was capable.
However, just over half also believed he was arrogant. About a third disagreed.
''The overall assessment would be that voters believe that he is a strong leader who is passionate and capable, but his 'down side' is that he is an arrogant leader. These above findings explain the relatively suppressed 'preferred leader' figures that Stanhope was showing throughout the three electorates,'' Mr Patterson said.
Although there has been a backlash against Labor since it became the ACT's first single-party majority government, Canberrans are split on whether they want a cross-bench to influence government decisions. Half preferred majority government, 32per cent were for a minority government and the remaining 18per cent did not know.
Labor voters were the most likely to support majority government, with 64per cent agreeing it produced the best outcome. Liberal supporters were a bit further back on 54per cent. Unsurprisingly, Greens supporters, at 41per cent, and those who voted for others, at 65per cent, were the most likely to want a minority government.
The big issues that will affect the way Canberrans vote are education (31per cent) and health (30per cent).