Dr Kelly and Labor hold a commanding lead in the primary vote, 48 per cent to 41 per cent, which translates into a 56-44 two-party preferred margin in the poll, conducted by Patterson Market Research early this week.

Eden-Monaro voters also have expressed a strong personal preference for Dr Kelly over four-term Liberal incumbent Gary Nairn, the Special Minister of State. Asked who would make a more effective representative, regardless of party, 45 per cent nominated Dr Kelly with only 38 per cent choosing Mr Nairn.

The poll which surveyed 400 voters across the south-eastern NSW electorate last Monday and Tuesday reflects internal polling leaked by Labor shortly before the election campaign began. It shows Dr Kelly would be elected without the need for the preferences of Green candidate Keith Hughes (7 per cent) to be counted.

The poll result runs counter to polling that the Prime Minister, John Howard, referred to at a recent joint Coalition parties meeting that he contended showed Mr Nairn was still "competitive".

Dr Kelly's two-party preferred margin, 6 per cent, is the point at which the Australian Electoral Commission formally flags a seat "fairly safe" and no longer "marginal".

The margin in the new poll is greater than the 4.76 per cent that Mr Nairn recorded when he first won the seat in the Coalition landslide of 1996.

Mr Nairn's margin was slashed to only 0.62 per cent at the 1998 election before he pushed it out to 1.69 per cent in 2001 and out again to 2.14 per cent in 2004. A redistribution since that last election has increased Mr Nairn's notional hold on the seat to 3.3 per cent.

The poll reflects a huge turnaround from voters in the seat, which has gone with government at every one of the past 14 federal elections.

Pollster Keith Patterson said the results were "absolutely devastating" for the Coalition. They included a whopping 51-37 win for Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd as preferred prime minister by Eden-Monaro voters.

"If I was a betting person, and you could find someone to take the bet, I'd be putting money on Rudd," Mr Patterson said.

On the war in Iraq, Eden-Monaro voters preferred Labor's performance over the Coalition's by a huge 60-19.

Labor has billed Dr Kelly, formerly an army colonel who served in Iraq, as "a decorated war hero".

Mr Patterson said he believed voters would feel that "at least he's been on the ground and understands something about it".

"Also, I think that people are well and truly sick of the Howard rhetoric on that," he said.

The only bright spots in the polling for the Government were its solid rating as preferred economic manager, 56-26, among the voters of the south-east. The Government has been heavily pushing its credentials on the economy throughout the campaign and other polls have shown a closing gap between the parties, albeit with the Coalition still holding the lead.

However, Mr Patterson noted that Eden-Monaro voters, while opting strongly for the Coalition in the area, did not rate the economy as a dominant issue.

"In essence, the ALP is ticking all the boxes in Eden-Monaro, and the Coalition has only managed to demonstrate superiority in managing the economy," the pollster said.

"This issue is not at the same level of importance as are health and the environment in particular." The strong showing for Labor in Eden-Monaro includes a reversal of the general belief that seats with older populations favour the Coalition. In Eden-Monaro, 69 per cent of adults are 40 or over, whereas the national average is closer to 50 per cent.

However, voters aged 40-plus preferred Dr Kelly over Mr Nairn, 51-37, with those under 40 favouring the incumbent, 45-38.

Electors did not split substantially on gender lines, with Dr Kelly favoured 47-42 by men and 46-38 by women.

The poll found 80 per cent of voters were quite certain about which way they would jump on November 24.