China, North and South Korea and Australia's close ally, Japan, are priority targets for Australian intelligence, according to classified briefing papers prepared for Defence Minister Joel Fitzgibbon.
The papers, written shortly after the election of the Labor Government, offer a rare insight into sensitive details of intelligence priorities, the structure and resourcing of the top secret Defence Intelligence Organisation.
The disclosure of DIO's focus on Japan comes after Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's meeting in Tokyo with Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda and expressions of Japanese support for Mr Rudd's proposed International Commission on Non-Proliferation and Disarmament.
The briefings, seen by The Canberra Times, show that DIO's transnational, scientific and technical intelligence branches keep a close watch on Japan's nuclear power industry and civilian space programs.
According to one Defence intelligence analyst, this is more than a watching brief.
"We put quite a lot of effort into the Japanese target," he said.
"After all they have lots of nuclear reactors, an advanced space sector and an enormous stockpile of plutonium. There's no Japanese intention now to get nuclear weapons, but who knows what the world will look like in a decade or two decades' time.
"A disarmament commission is all very fine, but the Japanese have all the knowledge and kit to become a nuclear power in a matter of months if they wanted to and we have to cover all the possibilities however remote they may seem now."
The issue of Japan's growing plutonium stockpile has recently attracted significant international attention, with Australian National University emeritus professor Gavan McCormack labelling Japan "a plutonium superpower".
DIO is the Defence Department's intelligence assessment agency.
It draws on information gathered by Australia's intelligence collection agencies, the Defence Signals Directorate and the Australian Secret Intelligence Service, defence attaches posted at embassies, the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, and liaison with allied defence intelligence agencies.
Although the leaked papers confirm that much of the organisation's analytical effort has been devoted to support defence force operations in Afghanistan, Iraq, East Timor and the Solomon Islands, the agency's long-term focus is on Australia's strategic interests in North Asia, South-East Asia (especially Indonesia), Papua New Guinea and the South Pacific, and on transnational issues, in particular weapons proliferation.
DIO's North Asia branch comprises three separate sections devoted to analysis on China, Japan and the Koreas.
The Global Operations branch includes sections devoted not only to Afghanistan and Iraq, but also Iran.
The briefing papers highlight a range of examples of DIO's intelligence product, including analysis of Iran's ballistic missile and uranium enrichment programs, North Korea's ballistic missile program and analysis of the September 2007 Israeli attack on an alleged nuclear facility in Syria.
DIO's intelligence products make extensive use of signals intelligence information and spy satellite imagery sourced from the United States National Reconnaissance Office.
The organisation provides day-to-day briefings for the Defence Minister on events around the world with a highly classified minister's morning brief and a DIO daily intelligence summary.
However, while DIO is eager to meet the immediate needs of its minister and the Government, the briefing papers indicate that the agency's overall structure and priorities reflect the recommendation of the 2004 inquiry into Australian intelligence agencies conducted by Philip Flood that the organisation focus on "supporting defence strategic policy and meeting the strategic assessment needs of the Australian Defence Force".
In its briefings, DIO is keen to contrast media reports with "more accurate secret intelligence", but nonetheless acknowledges its own heavy use of so-called "open source" information drawn from the media and the internet.