LANCE Armstrong is unlikely to have the form and fitness to be a podium contender in next month's Tour Down Under, according to Canberra pro cyclist Michael Rogers.
Seven-time Tour de France winner Armstrong will make his much-hyped comeback to cycling in the South Australian stage race, which will guarantee the event unprecedented international exposure.
But former Tour Down Under winner Rogers, who missed most of this year's racing because of the effects of glandular fever, said Armstrong would struggle to keep pace with the world's best.
''Myself, having had almost a year off with various injuries and sickness last year, I found it very hard to come back after missing all that racing,'' Rogers said.
''In terms of fitness and general body conditioning, it took quite a long time to come back.
''[Lance] has had three years off now, so in my books it'll be hard for him in the first races to be up there.''
Astana team member Armstrong has targeted next year's Tour de France, but he is yet to officially confirm his place.
Rogers, who returns to Australia on January3 to compete in the national championships and the Tour Down Under, said the five-day race in and around Adelaide would tell the cycling world a lot about Armstrong's potential to return to the winner's podium in Paris in July.
''Even though he may have been training, it's so hard to simulate racing in training,'' Rogers said.
''Can he win the Tour [de France]? I really don't know. It's the same question everyone is asking themselves and I suppose only time will tell.''
International drug testers are keeping a watchful eye on Armstrong during his probation period.
He claimed this week to have been drug tested 11 times in the past 18 weeks and two times in four days this week. The latest test was conducted at his Texas home by officials from the International Cycling Union.
''They flew a guy from Germany for it. That makes a ton of sense,'' Armstrong wrote on social networking website Twitter.
Armstrong even let his Twitter readers know that he was on his way to meet with the drug testers.
''I am back from the shop after riding four hours. I hear the drug testers are waiting at the house at 11 [o'clock],'' he wrote.
Armstrong, who plans to resume his cycling career next year, was placed under a six-month probation period by the United States Anti-doping Agency at the beginning of August.
Armstrong needs to pass USADA's out-of-competition testing pool before his cycling comeback can become official.
News of his return has drawn mixed reviews in cycling circles. Armstrong has been accused of doping practices on several occasions, most notably in an article in French sports newspaper L'Equipe in 2005, claiming six urine samples from his 1999 Tour victory contained the blood-boosting drug EPO. The rider himself has always denied doping and the UCI cleared him in 2006.
with AFP