All across Australia people are wondering who will win the Melbourne Cup. CHRIS ROOTS analyses the chances of tomorrow's 24 runners.Viewed
Why he can win: The defending champion that hasn't put a foot wrong this spring. He won the Caulfield Cup and his third in the Mackinnon Stakes on Saturday was the perfect lead-up.
Why he can't win: Weight, only two horses Think Big and Makybe Diva have carried more than 58kg to win since the Cup moved into the metric era in 1972.
C'est La Guerre
Why he can win: A New Zealand Derby winner that ran third to Viewed in the Melbourne Cup last year. He'll run out the two miles and gets even better if the track is wet.
Why he can't win: He went awful when 15th in the Caulfield Cup and pulled up with a sore back. He hasn't run since and there might be a fitness query with him
Fiumicino
Why he can win: Has hit form running third in the Metropolitan and fifth in the Caulfield Cup at his past two starts. A dual Group1 winner at 2400m but on bog tracks.
Why he can't win: Failed to stay on after leading the Sydney Cup for home in April and was beaten 912 lengths. Also has drawn the outside barrier of 24.
Master O'Reilly
Why he can win: Hard campaigner, running in third Melbourne Cup after finishing eighth as favourite in 2007 and fourth last year. In good form and turned in the perfect old-style Cup trial when he flashed home in the Mackinnon on Saturday.
Why he can't win: He hasn't won since the Caulfield Cup two years ago and seems to be a horse that is always promising to win but never delivering.
Mourilyan
Why he can win: A European stayer that has had two shots at 3200m for a pair of seconds. The latest came in the Goodwood Cup to Schiaparelli, who has franked the form by winning a Group1. Trained by South African Herman Brown, who has an outstanding record travelling horses around the world.
Why he can't win: Could be the typical European, which doesn't handle the pressure of a Melbourne Cup. His trainer calls him ''the sleeping lion'' because he relaxes and takes a bit of time to reach his top in races.
Roman Emperor
Why he can win: Proven stayer that won this year's AJC Derby and was runner-up in the Caulfield Cup, and has the Bart factor.
Why he can't win: Only having his 14th start and there is a doubt if he is seasoned enough to win.
Ista Kareem
Why he can win: He scored five wins at 2400m and beyond, including this year's Sydney Cup, so will stay the trip.
Why he can't win: Only ran in the first half of the field once in five runs this preparation.
Crime Scene
Why he can win: He hasn't carried under 57.5kg this year and drops to 53kg. He has won in Dubai and England in 2009, so is a good traveller.
Why he can't win: Godolphin's second stringer who had his chance to win the Geelong Cup but looked one-paced.
Musef
Why he can win: He has found form since joining the Ian Williams stable with three wins and two seconds in his past five runs. A winner at 2700m.
Why he can't win: Couldn't win the Stockholm Cup last time and hasn't been tried at 3200m.
Zavite
Why he can win: Front-running stayer that won the Adelaide Cup over two miles this year.
Why he can't win: He has struggled every time he has stepped up to Group1 level and lacks class.
Alcopop
Why he can win: Unbeaten in four runs this preparation and has won seven of 10 starts. Blitzed the field in the Herbert Power (2400m) last start.
Why he can't win: Yet to take on the best stayers and hasn't run over 3200m.
Harris Tweed
Why he can win: Ran second in the AJC Derby and fourth in the New Zealand St Leger, so as the races get longer he gets better.
Why he can't win: Needs it wet to shows his best and not in good form.
Kibbutz
Why he can win: Put in his best effort for a long time last run when fourth in the Moonee Valley Cup.
Why he can't win: Hasn't run a place since winning the Victoria Derby two years ago.
Newport
Why he can win: Ran a solid race when 10th last year to Viewed and produced an eye-catching run in the Mackinnon on Saturday, including the fastest final 200m.
Why he can't win: It's been a long time since he has produced his best and has had two tries at two miles without getting close to them.
Warringah
Why he can win: Showed he was a good stayer by leading up the Ebor field before battling on for fifth, only 114 lengths from the winner and receives a big weight turnaround from Changingoftheguard.
Why he can't win: His first try at 3200m and unlikely to be able to race on the speed as is his normal pattern.
Gallions Reach
Why he can win: A Group1 winner at 2000m in New Zealand and has been placed at 3200m.
Why he can't win: Couldn't win the Bendigo Cup.
Spin Around
Why he can win: Won the Auckland Cup over two miles this year.
Why he can't win: Hasn't finished in the first 10 since coming to Australia.
Basaltico
Why he can win: Finished third at his only start over 3200m in Dubai and has the Luca Cumani polish.
Why he can't win: He seems an honest hope on his European form but finds it hard to win.
Capecover
Why he can win: Won the Queen Elizabeth Stakes on the final day of the carnival last year, a race that Makybe Diva won before going on to her Cup triple treat.
Why he can't win: Poor in the Bendigo Cup and hasn't showed up in two runs at 3200m.
Daffodil
Why she can win: A weight-for-age winner this preparation and her runs have been 2400m, a win in the AJC Oaks and fourth in the Caulfield Cup.
Why she can't win: Looked like she didn't have anything left at the end of the Caulfield Cup. A risk at the trip.
Shocking
Why he can win: Strong form at 2400m and beyond. Very good win in the Lexus on Saturday and didn't get a penalty for it.
Why he can't win: Meets favourite Alcopop on worse terms after being beaten by him in the Herbert Power Handicap.
Allez Wonder
Why she can win: Ran third in the VRC Oaks last year and her mum won a Perth Cup at 3200m.
Why she can't win: If it is wet forget her because she hates it.
Changingoftheguard
Why he can win: Transferred to Australian trainer David Hayes who has the local knowledge vital at this time of year.
Why he can't win: He has had a troubled preparation since arriving and doubts remain over his fitness.
Leica Ding
Why she can win: Won the Geelong Cup which has developed into a great form reference in the past decade and has won at 3000m.
Why she can't win: Lacks class with trainer Darren Weir calling her an honest horse.