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Boom 'all but over' as deficits dominate

03 Jul, 2009 08:30 AM
The boom is ''all but over'' and economists predict Australia's trade deficit will keep growing after new figures showed it almost doubled to $556million in May.

The result was worse than the expected $125million deficit, and comes after eight straight surpluses that averaged $1.1billion.

CommSec economist Savanth Sebastian said the trade surpluses over the past year might be short-lived ''but the additional $8billion in export revenue generated over the last year will have a multiplier effect through the economy''.

''The latest data has confirmed that the trade boom is all but over largely due to the downward revision of iron ore and coal contract prices,'' he said.

''Trade deficits will be the norm over coming months as further downward revisions to commodity prices are likely.''

Australian Bureau of Statistic figures for May showed that exports fell 5per cent, or $1.1billion to $20.4billion, largely because of a 15per cent or $540million drop in coal.

Imports dropped 4per cent, or $838million to $20.9billion to be contracting at the fastest annual pace on record.

TD Securities senior strategist Annette Beacher said the May fall included a $577million, 14per cent, fall in capital goods.

''Business investment has ground to a halt and the business recession continues. Get set for another quarterly round of falling profits, investment, terms of trade later next month,'' she said.

More economic news in today's Canberra Times

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