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Horse has bolted for Cup rate rise

29 Oct, 2009 08:23 AM
Decade-low inflation will not prevent a second consecutive interest rate rise on Melbourne Cup Day, economists say.

The consumer price index was up 1 per cent in the September quarter or 1.3 per cent for the past year.

It was the lowest annual reading since mid-1999, and would have been even lower except for a big spike in water and electricity prices.

The Reserve Bank's preferred measure of underlying inflation also continued to ease, dropping from 3.9per cent to 3.5 per cent, but it remained above its target 2-3 per cent band.

The results were slightly above expectations, but most economists said they remained low enough that the Reserve would raise rates by only 25 basis points on Melbourne Cup Day, although a third straight increase in December appeared increasingly likely.

Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said a larger 50-point increase was a ''genuine prospect'' on Tuesday, saying the data showed little slowing in price growth and this was ''hardly consistent with the current extremely expansionary stance of monetary policy''.

CommSec chief economist Craig James said the central bank would not be in a rush to normalise rates and could even leave them steady next week.

''The full effects of the slowdown haven't shown up in the inflation figures and the higher Aussie dollar will also be keeping a lid on inflation. In addition there are good reasons to be cautious about the trajectory of the global economy, especially the US,'' he said.

JP Morgan economist Stephen Walters said that even if board members thought about a 50-point hike, ''they will decide against scaring the horses on Melbourne Cup day''.

However, he warned that ''we need to prepare ourselves for what will be an extended tightening cycle''.

The Reserve has previously expressed concern about rising home prices and Australian Property Monitors' latest report, to be published today, shows the housing market continued to boom in the September quarter.

Group economist Matthew Bell predicted ''moderate to strong growth'' across the market for the rest of this year and next, although ''explosive growth seen in the upper end of the market is expected to slow as prices reach and exceed their late 2007 highs''.

House prices rose nationally by 3.7 per cent in the three months the biggest increase in six years and units were up 3.4per cent. Canberra houses recorded a 4.8 per cent rise over the same period to a median $511,820, but units were more subdued at 1.3 per cent to a median $381,345. Houses are up 6.3 per cent in the past year and units 6.1 per cent.

Meanwhile, Access's Investment Monitor, also out today, showed there were $273.3billion of definite investment projects at the end of September, up $46billion from June. The increase was almost entirely attributable to the approval of the $43 billion Gorgon liquid natural gas project off the West Australian coast.

''During the September quarter there were just nine new projects in the Investment Monitor database. This number forms a new low point, continuing the trend since mid 2008 of a declining number of new projects entering the database,'' it said.

''But there are now renewed reasons for optimism. In part that is because profits are down 'only' 20per cent Access Economics had feared the downswing could result in a greater savaging of profits.''

The tax office's annual report showed government revenue was hit hard.

Revenue collections fell $20billion below budget estimates for the past financial year the biggest drop since 1930-31. Company tax collections were down 15.8per cent and GST collections were down 9.1per cent.

However, there were more signs yesterday the economy was in recovery. The Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations skilled vacancy index was up 1.9per cent in October, the fourth straight increase, but it remains 44per cent down on a year earlier.

The internet vacancy index was up 8.3per cent nationally, and 6.8per cent in the ACT.

It comes as Reserve Bank assistant governor Malcolm Edey expressed cautious optimism about the global situation.

''We can't yet say that things are back to normal, and we still can't rule out further setbacks. But the extreme downside risks that dominated the scene a year ago now seem to have faded,'' he said.

Bad business loans could still be a concern. ''Impairments on commercial property loans have been increasing over the past couple of years, and business loan losses more generally have picked up as the economy slowed. This will remain an area to watch in the period ahead. Nevertheless, banks' aggregate impairment rates are still low in comparison to other countries, and they are only a fraction of the level they reached here in the early 1990s,'' he said.

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Oh Goodie!!! Our respective governments (local etc) raise the price on water, gas, electricity etc by over 10% and that results in not only us paying more for basic services but now the Reserve Bank considers that to be inflationary and needs to whack us again with higher interest rates on our homes....hmmmm anyone else see a pattern forming here? All the non-essential prices have fallen, only Government charges have risen!!! Maybe the RBA should exclude Govt charges from any Inflation figures, same as they did bananas a few years ago!!! Appears that Govts can charge what they like for services and we get double 'taxed' for it.
Posted by phantom, 29/10/2009 8:45:44 AM
This is ridiculous. Australia is a total international embarrassment. It's already one of the most expensive places to live and soon will be the most expensive. Increasing interest rates won't stop house prices from rising - people don't have much choice because demand far exceeds supply and investors are squeezing the ordinary Australian dry! Prices for everything will keep rising because we all need basic services and again have no choice! The government doesn't care because it's only in for a few years. The people who pay are the honest hardworking people - as usual.
Posted by jaguar, 29/10/2009 11:15:23 AM
Only a 10% increase in electricity? I wish! Down on the South Coast my electricity increased by 21% from July 1st.
Posted by John, 29/10/2009 11:38:20 AM
Any person that was supportive of Rudd's $50 billion hand out must be now ducking for cover as increased rates are a direct result of that. Blind Freddy could have seen that coming.
Posted by William, 29/10/2009 1:52:27 PM
Have you been to Europe, Jaguar?! Cost of living expenses here are nothing compared to places like the UK and France. If you don't like electricity prices, stop using so much of it! Australians live well above our means, so don't hide behind the "essential services" defence...
Posted by kincuri, 29/10/2009 2:56:51 PM
You won't hear me complaining. So much extra interest. Gotta love not being in debt and actually having savings.
Posted by Nathaniel, 29/10/2009 3:37:13 PM
Jaguar stop complaining, in Europe gst is mostly above 20%, petrol is twice as much. Australia still remains cheap compared with Europe.
Posted by arod, 29/10/2009 10:23:41 PM

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Homebuyers are set to face higher interest rates in coming months. Photo: ANDREW SHEARGOLD
Homebuyers are set to face higher interest rates in coming months. Photo: ANDREW SHEARGOLD

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