Australian Republic Movement senior deputy chairman John Warhurst, in a speech at Parliament House, said monarchists were ''deliberately diminishing the role of the Queen'' as a way of defending the status quo and avoiding a republic.

''This new strategy has probably been a short-term winner for monarchists in muddying the waters about the central republican claim that only a republic will give Australia its own head of state, but it is a longer-term dead end for monarchists as it reduces the Queen to the much vaguer position of sovereign reigning over Australians,'' he said.

''This vastly underestimates the continuing social and cultural role of the Queen and her successors in Australian public life.''

However, satisfaction with the status quo and a feeling by some that the required constitutional change was not worth the effort meant ''the odds are against Australia moving to a republic in the short to medium term''.

He rejected suggestions Australians should wait for the Queen to die before shifting to a republic as an ''ill-thought-out soft option''.

Professor Warhurst said about 60per cent of Australians supported a republic, but that was not enough to be confident of winning a majority of voters in a majority of states in a referendum. ''Interest groups can encourage a groundswell and strive to speak for the popular view, but it is governments who can take action,'' he said. David McLennan