The Reserve Bank will consider further interest rate cuts this morning amid new stockmarket blood-letting, job losses and figures showing the economy is in worse shape than previously thought.
The stockmarket lost $27billion and fell to a five-year low yesterday as new data showed plummeting business profits revived talk the country has already entered a recession.
However, economists are unsure how the Reserve will react, saying it will be a ''near coin toss'' as to whether it will deliver another reduction today or keep rates on hold while waiting to see how its previous big cuts and the Government's stimulus packages work.
The central bank has already slashed the cash rate by 400 basis points since September to a 45-year low of 3.25 per cent.
Ahead of tomorrow's national accounts figures, Treasurer Wayne Swan said yesterday that seven of Australia's top-10 trading partners were in recession which would ''have a dramatic impact on growth in Australia in the December quarter''.
''It's very important as we go through this period to understand that if you were going to be in any country in the world in this situation, Australia is where you would want to be, but we're certainly not immune from this global recession,'' he said.
The warning came as more companies shed workers. Anglo Coal Australia said it would cut 650 mining jobs across Queensland and NSW and Melbourne car parts maker Robert Bosch is axing up to 170 jobs.
Other developments undermining the economy yesterday included:
The Australian Industry Group-PricewaterhouseCoopers performance of manufacturing index falling for the ninth consecutive month;
Moody's Investors Service downgrading to negative the ratings outlook for ANZ Bank, the Commonwealth Bank and Westpac;
Worse-than-expected Australian Bureau of Statistics business indicators figures, showing a 6.5per cent seasonally adjusted fall in company profits which would have been a 11.3per cent collapse if mining was not included and a 1.9per cent drop in inventories in the December 2008 quarter. Economists had expected 1per cent and 1.9per cent declines for profits and inventories respectively.
ANZ senior economist Katie Dean said the data was ''horrible'' and the inventories drop alone would take an estimated 1.2percentage points off the December quarter's gross domestic product figures, which will be revealed tomorrow.
The figures would make it hard for GDP [or economic] growth to stay positive, she said.
''There has also been some concern that quarter three GDP growth, reported as 0.1per cent, could be revised down, and thus that Australia could find it already experienced a technical recession [in the second half of 2008],'' Ms Dean said
There is some good news. HSBC chief economist John Edwards said that although the reduction in inventories would hurt tomorrow's GDP figures, it would support a faster recovery.
''It means that any increase in demand will have a more rapid impact on production and employment,'' he said.
The Reserve Bank board will evaluate this and other data when it meets this morning.
The market has factored in a 25-basis point cut to be announced this afternoon but economists cannot agree on what the Reserve will do.
JP Morgan economists said the decision would be ''a near coin toss''.
''The Reserve Bank may deliver yet another out-sized reduction in the cash rate, having already slashed it by a mammoth 400-basis point since early September,'' JP Morgan said.
''We favour a 50-basis point rate cut, but without our usual level of conviction, owing mainly to the unusually high level of uncertainty about the outlook. Alternatively, last week's upbeat data hinting that Australia's economy still is travelling well, and recent official commentary hinting at a pause, may well mean officials take a 'breather'.''
- with AAP