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Stocks, profits, jobs in freefall

03 Mar, 2009 06:42 AM
The Reserve Bank will consider further interest rate cuts this morning amid new stockmarket blood-letting, job losses and figures showing the economy is in worse shape than previously thought.

The stockmarket lost $27billion and fell to a five-year low yesterday as new data showed plummeting business profits revived talk the country has already entered a recession.

However, economists are unsure how the Reserve will react, saying it will be a ''near coin toss'' as to whether it will deliver another reduction today or keep rates on hold while waiting to see how its previous big cuts and the Government's stimulus packages work.

The central bank has already slashed the cash rate by 400 basis points since September to a 45-year low of 3.25 per cent.

Ahead of tomorrow's national accounts figures, Treasurer Wayne Swan said yesterday that seven of Australia's top-10 trading partners were in recession which would ''have a dramatic impact on growth in Australia in the December quarter''.

''It's very important as we go through this period to understand that if you were going to be in any country in the world in this situation, Australia is where you would want to be, but we're certainly not immune from this global recession,'' he said.

The warning came as more companies shed workers. Anglo Coal Australia said it would cut 650 mining jobs across Queensland and NSW and Melbourne car parts maker Robert Bosch is axing up to 170 jobs.

Other developments undermining the economy yesterday included:

The Australian Industry Group-PricewaterhouseCoopers performance of manufacturing index falling for the ninth consecutive month;

Moody's Investors Service downgrading to negative the ratings outlook for ANZ Bank, the Commonwealth Bank and Westpac;

Worse-than-expected Australian Bureau of Statistics business indicators figures, showing a 6.5per cent seasonally adjusted fall in company profits which would have been a 11.3per cent collapse if mining was not included and a 1.9per cent drop in inventories in the December 2008 quarter. Economists had expected 1per cent and 1.9per cent declines for profits and inventories respectively.

ANZ senior economist Katie Dean said the data was ''horrible'' and the inventories drop alone would take an estimated 1.2percentage points off the December quarter's gross domestic product figures, which will be revealed tomorrow.

The figures would make it hard for GDP [or economic] growth to stay positive, she said.

''There has also been some concern that quarter three GDP growth, reported as 0.1per cent, could be revised down, and thus that Australia could find it already experienced a technical recession [in the second half of 2008],'' Ms Dean said

There is some good news. HSBC chief economist John Edwards said that although the reduction in inventories would hurt tomorrow's GDP figures, it would support a faster recovery.

''It means that any increase in demand will have a more rapid impact on production and employment,'' he said.

The Reserve Bank board will evaluate this and other data when it meets this morning.

The market has factored in a 25-basis point cut to be announced this afternoon but economists cannot agree on what the Reserve will do.

JP Morgan economists said the decision would be ''a near coin toss''.

''The Reserve Bank may deliver yet another out-sized reduction in the cash rate, having already slashed it by a mammoth 400-basis point since early September,'' JP Morgan said.

''We favour a 50-basis point rate cut, but without our usual level of conviction, owing mainly to the unusually high level of uncertainty about the outlook. Alternatively, last week's upbeat data hinting that Australia's economy still is travelling well, and recent official commentary hinting at a pause, may well mean officials take a 'breather'.''

- with AAP

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Now is the time to take a big bold approach to a long term plan. We are a resource rich country, our resources are in high demand internationally. If we value add to these resources before they leave our shores and we actively pursue the market volumes to support very heavy capital investment we will create long term jobs which will ensure our children and our childrens children will have a sucure employment situation for them to maintain ours and their standard of living. This will require a visionary aproach coupled with total commitment from Government, Business and Trade Unions. The time to act is NOW. AUSTRALIA lets get moving. Remember the Government works for us we do not work for the Government.
Posted by Maxwell, 3/03/2009 7:20:06 AM
Maxwell, you are right in one sense, we do need to get moving but I'm no longer convinced the direction your pose is the right one. Resource rich - yes, but they are finite and their impact on the environment here and their intended destination is unquantifiable. We need to think and act smarter and not rely on the same old, same old.
Posted by PKA, 3/03/2009 8:57:38 AM
ANZ economist ...says the data was "horrible", yet Swan says "Australia is where you would want to be". He says, seven out of ten are in recession- (Yawn!)but "technically"... the "figures show we are in a worse shape than previously thought". "Previously" thinking was to put us on a 'life-support oxygen gas credit tank' till the winds of change blow around Australia. Well done- the thinkers! now try to get us out of real debt that you wise neo-nothings have created. Try "Go to Centrelink" or "We will re-build this ... brick by brick". The theory of riddening debt by creating more debt is a failure, but IQ125-'Brain&Brainless' won't admit the deficit hole was dug by themselves. February is gone-the Pension Report is where? Tanner is getting us 'used to' hearing that last years $35 pw increase is a good as it gets! Sounds so quiet now? And the 'oldies' will just say "better than nothing, you can always find someone else worse off than yourself" and tune out, than hold them accountable for a whole years "careful assessment- to get the balance right". Bollocks!
Posted by adaptapensioner.com, 3/03/2009 10:04:16 AM
Maxwell, when are you running for election? I'd vote for you! We need more politicians with your mindset. We need true leadership. PKA - I agree also with your thought that we need to "think and act smarter". Again. We need true leadership.
Posted by NH, 3/03/2009 10:13:59 AM
PKA, If we are smart and develop state of the art technology and state of the art equpment and practices not only will we reduce our environmental impact and by bringing back some of the value adding functions we reduce the environmental impact in other countries.
Posted by Maxwell, 3/03/2009 10:39:02 AM

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