About 1.6 million Australians will be living with Type 2 diabetes by 2050, almost double the current number and a figure that exposes the alarming challenge facing the country.
The findings are from a landmark study issued today by the University of Canberra's National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling.
Lead researcher Professor Laurie Brown said it featured the ''first detailed economic model'' to forecast the prevalence and impact of Type 2 diabetes based on Australian data.
Researchers also assessed the effectiveness of measures such as exercise, medications and counselling in containing this ''looming health crisis''.
People develop Type 2 diabetes, which can cause organ failure if not effectively treated, when their body no longer responds properly to insulin.
Kidneys, heart and blood vessels, nerves and eyes are the most severely affected areas of the body.
About one in seven Australians will have the disease in 2050 but a large number will be undiagnosed.
About 1.6million Australians will be aware that they have Type 2 diabetes nearly twice the current number.
They will rack up $14billion a year in direct health costs and will need more than 270,000 coronary bypass grafting procedures, suffer more than 250,000 strokes and experience more than 750,000 renal complications.
Diabetes Australia believes the findings reinforce the need for urgent action to ''help reduce the increasing future pressure on health and economic resources''.
Professor Brown said the team assessed the impact of five measures improving use of medications, improving exercise levels, enhancing primary health care, introducing new medications, and patient counselling.
''All five interventions showed benefits over the long term, improving levels of diabetes control, reducing the number of complications and therefore the health burden,'' he said.
''The interventions generated reductions in complications over a three-year period ranging from 35 to 110 complications per 1000 participants.
''Significant average savings over the 45-year simulation were also achieved per individual participating in each intervention.''
The average saving was $331.53 if the person regularly exercised. Improving the use of existing medications could save $476.07 per person.
Introducing a new drug could reduce costs by $179.38 if it was a substitute for a medication already on the market or $730.55 if it was a novel treatment.
The costs could be cut by $679.55 a person if primary health care was enhanced through GPs and other health professionals working together to help patients tackle risk factors such as weight and physical inactivity.
Counselling and support could produce savings of $415.81 a person.
The project was funded by Eli Lilly Australia, which makes drugs to treat diabetes.
The NATSEM report was developed with representatives from Diabetes Australia, the Pharmacy Guild, Baker IDI Heart and Diabetes Institute, Pretium Pty Limited, the Improvement Foundation and Eli Lilly.