" YOU talkin' to me? You talkin' to me? You talkin' to me? "
- Travis Bickle's famous words as he stared at himself in the mirror in the movie Taxi Driver .
Bickle was, of course, looking at a reverse image of himself. Sunday's NRL grand final is a little like that. Manly's forwards are the best at playing like backs, while Melbourne's backs produce numbers that would be the envy of any forward pack. Manly is the best attacking team in the NRL; Melbourne lead the league in defence. The Sea Eagles are highly potent on their right; the Storm's left-hand side is lethal.
Even the bookmakers have reversed the odds of last year, installing Manly as favourites against the team that defeated them in the 2007 decider.
The late Frank Hyde was forever complaining about forwards standing in the back line, while backs now pack into scrums. But Manly and Melbourne have turned statistical tables back the front.
Every Storm back, from No.1 to No.6, averages more than 100 metres carrying the ball a game, some recording 140m plus, while only one of the team's forwards - Jeff Lima - exceeds 100m, with an average of 105m.
Storm backs lead the NRL in metres gained, tries scored, try assists, half breaks, tackle breaks, line breaks and line-break assists. They can play an entire set, travelling 60m, without a Melbourne forward touching the ball.
On the other hand, Manly forwards can move upfield from tackle one to six without relying on any of their backs. Fullback Brett Stewart and centre Steve Matai are the only Manly backs who come close to the metres gained of their forwards. The Manly pack is the best in the league at offloads and passes, punching through the line, promoting the ball and executing kicks.
One statistic reflects the different orientation of the two teams - Manly are ranked No.3 in the NRL on offloads; Melbourne are last. Of the six attacking categories used by coaches to analyse games, Manly lead the NRL in four. They are first in points scored (27.5 per game), tries per game (5.1), metres gained (1391.5) and line breaks (5.3), and they are second in tackle breaks (39.3), fourth in errors made (11) and third in offloads (12.7).
The Storm aren't far behind, sitting third in points (23.8) and tries scored (4.3), fourth in metres (1340.6), sixth in line breaks (4.6) and seventh in tackle breaks (36.8). While Melbourne are last on offloads (6.5), they are the second-best team at reducing errors (10.8). The Storm's game is built on defence. Of the six categories coaches use to measure defence, the Storm lead in five. They are tops in what they concede (or don't concede) - points (11.8); tries (2.1); line breaks (3.2); offloads (9) and missed tackles (27.9).
The only defensive index in which they slip down the ladder is metres conceded (1274.4), where they are ranked fifth, while the Sea Eagles are No.1 (1187.5).
A further indication the NRL has the best two teams in the grand final is Manly's numbers in defence. They are second on points conceded (14.8) and tries conceded (2.6), while they are fifth in line breaks allowed (3.8) and eighth on offloads conceded (11.1) and missed tackles (33.4).
Manly's lethal right-hand side, with back-rower Glenn Stewart slicing through in the zone called "the edge" worries Melbourne, while the Storm's big-match left-field player, Greg Inglis, terrifies the Sea Eagles. In other words, Melbourne's left-hand side of Inglis and Matt Geyer, together with a wide-standing forward, possibly Jeremy Smith, must counter Manly's potent right, while being expected to produce the big plays in attack.
Manly's right must contain Melbourne's explosive players and simultaneously produce magic moments with the ball. If there is a stalemate on the Inglis-Glenn Stewart side of the field, it may come down to the Storm's right versus the Sea Eagles' left. Manly half Matt Orford and centre Matai tend to rush up in defence, presenting the opportunity for the Storm to grubber in behind them or execute second-man plays.
Melbourne's problem is that they don't have Cam Smith to kick from dummy-half to exploit this. A measure of his loss through suspension is his replacement by three dummy-halves.
Russell Aitken is expected to start as hooker, but fullback Billy Slater is likely to move in before half-time, leaving Geyer to finish the game at the ruck - as he did against Cronulla, when his combination with Slater led to him scoring the final try. While three dummy-halves could signal instability and indecision, it could also be a match-winner.
Although the statistics suggest this year's grand finalists are the mirror image of each other, their match plans will be the same - wear the opposition down in the first half and exploit their fatigue in the second. History shows that of the six contests between back-to-back grand finalists, the reigning premiers have prevailed five times. However, during the past year, Manly have reversed six of the major statistical categories, taking Melbourne's mantle as leaders of total runs and tries, and overtaking them for hit-ups, line breaks, restart returns and quick play-the-balls.
Only one team (Penrith in 1991) has reversed the result of previous grand finals, but Manly have produced the stats to show they are hunting down the champions. Still, as Melbourne players stare in the mirror tomorrow, they may just have one big game left.