The Nine Network's decision to break its contract with the Rugby League World Cup and show key matches on delay could return a windfall profit of more than $2 million, with the network able to dramatically increase its advertising content.
In a move that has infuriated many fans, matches right up until the final on November 22 will be shown on a delay of an hour or more. Sunday night's match featuring the Kangaroos and New Zealand had finished while Nine's coverage was still limping towards half-time.
The decision, a clear breach of Nine's commitment to show key pool matches and the semi-finals live and in prime time, allows the network to run far more ads than is possible in a live broadcast. Instead of being limited to showing ads during breaks in play, such as tries or injuries, Nine can run ad blocs when it chooses.
Barring the almost inconceivable knock-out of the Kangaroos, Australia will play a further four prime-time matches. Each time the broadcast is delayed analysts believe Nine will be able to double its volume of advertising - generating significant revenue during prime time on Sunday nights.
Tournament director Colin Love conceded that then Nine chief executive Eddie McGuire had committed the network to live broadcasts but suggested some contracts were not worth enforcing.
"As far as we're concerned, they are our partners in the event and we both want to make it work," he said. "They believe they'll get the best ratings by screening it when they are. They're the experts - we've got to be guided by them. We don't like to be litigating with our partners even if we have the right to do it. That's really what it's all about."
The RLWC was told several weeks ago that Nine had changed its mind, with only the final - to be played on a Saturday - to stay as a live broadcast.
"The problem we had [on Sunday night] was with the opening ceremony, which caused the actual start of play to begin so late," Love said. "But next week I've been assured the coverage will actually start at 8.32pm - just after they go to air. It's only really a half-hour delay. They didn't want to move 60 Minutes and I can understand the logic of that."
Media analysts such as Peter Horgan, managing partner with OMD, and Steve Allen of Fusion Strategy, estimate Nine can screen double the volume of ads in a delayed rugby league broadcast.
"It's much easier for them to handle a delayed broadcast and they would double their 'minuteage'," Allen said.
He estimated this to be worth more than $300,000 across five capital cities.
"It could be up to half a million dollars," Allen said. "The biggest problem they've got is 60 Minutes and it's more than simply that Toyota sponsor it. They've got a very, very large and very extended relationship with Toyota. It's most unusual for Nine to shift 60 Minutes ."
Allen said there was a clear business case for delaying game coverage.
"It's very simple: the network's got to decide how it's best able to compete in the ratings game," he said. "Frankly, the ratings did not seem to suffer."
The match broadcast pulled in an average audience of 1.149 million across five capital cities. "'They've been very smart and I don't think they would have got that audience if they had shown it earlier," Allen said.
But Horgan said Nine was putting its relationship with league fans at risk.
"The risk for networks … is that if you are putting long-form advertising breaks in outside of half-time you are in danger of losing audience," he said.
Nine did not respond to questions.