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Not enough horses for the merry-go-round

21 Nov, 2008 01:00 AM

A summit of NSW racing should be called over the poor Saturday fields, a blight on Sydney racing, according to Michael Kenny, the Sydney Turf Club chief executive and the most experienced turf administrator in the state.

"Racing NSW and the clubs, metropolitan and provincial, should sit down and decide whether there are too many meetings at certain times of the year," Kenny maintained in another attempt to urinate into a gale of drongo thinking.

"Normally when it is broached, the answer comes from Racing NSW that we have to provide so many races every year because of an agreement with the TAB for the benefit of the industry.

"I don't think that is true. Surely the TAB, seeing five- and six-horse fields, would be interested in getting better turnover on local [races] with bigger fields."

Kenny admitted too much racing was only one aspect of the appalling situation.

"We have been talking about this for a long time," he said.

"Obviously, the system needs a change but who will implement it?

"This week meetings have been held at Warwick Farm on Tuesday, a provincial [meeting] on Wednesday, and Thursday night at Canterbury, which comes off the back of three Saturdays when the AJC and STC have had poor fields in terms of numbers," Kenny said.

"At this time of the year, there is a shortage of horses. It just doesn't seem right we should continue to run the same number of races."

Which is one point. Programming and handicapping are other contentious areas. "They go hand in hand, and we've got to come to terms with them," Kenny said.

"The dominance in recent years of Gai [Waterhouse] and John Hawkes is another factor. I'm not against them but other trainers are concerned about taking them on. Handicapping could come into play where they could be met on fair terms …"

"Looking at our [NSW] horses in Melbourne recently, it's not the depth or strength of NSW horses that's the problem. Sydney fields on Saturday are small because in some cases trainers would rather start at Gosford, Illawarra or Newcastle. They talk about [winning] strike rates. Do people really take notice of strike rates?

"I'm told trainers will only enter horses in races they think they have a very good chance of winning. Trainers rely more and more on publishing strike rates to get more horses [to train]."

(The only strike rate that matters to me is when the trainer says, "Today is the day," and is correct. Twenty losses when not fancied is irrelevant. Racing is about winning, not about figures, like batting averages.)

However, Sydney can't keep trudging along the road of negativity. "It's time people sat down and tried to work their way through it," Kenny said.

But which "people"? Racing in NSW is in limbo because the State Government is doddering over the appointment of a controlling body.

"We don't have dates for 2010," Kenny stressed. "Racing NSW is in caretaker mode and won't make a decision. We have major sponsors and can't tell them races dates. They work years ahead. I can't tell AAMI in 2010 when the Golden Slipper is going to be run.

"I can't take bookings for major Rosehill functions. We are looking at a business that raises $3.5 million, which goes back into racing prizemoney. Usually, function bookings are taken two and three years in advance."

Kenny recently attended the Asian Racing Conference in Japan.

"On many fronts, Australian racing is mirrored in just about every other jurisdiction," he maintained. "Wagering turnover is going through a downturn. They are all struggling with the same issues: illegal bookmakers in some countries and those not paying their fair dues. Revenue is suffering.

"Internet gambling sites for poker and casinos are major competitors. Sports betting is getting more popular. There's still a healthy interest in racing, but looking at graphs, our market share worldwide has decreased compared to casinos, even lotteries.

"Gambling on horse racing is going up but not to the degree it should. A lot of speakers at the Tokyo conference pointed out that the new punter is not being engaged. Punters are different and it's a huge challenge. The racing spectacle is fantastic and should be attracting people to bet. Bookmakers are offering people new ways: [offering] best fluctuations and best tote. I don't know whether Tabcorp can do that but new bet types have got to come."

And the racegoer demographic is changing, leading to a switch in behaviour pattern: boozing rather than betting.

"With a crowd of 20,000 at Rosehill last Saturday, we made good money but alcohol reared an ugly head. We had wristbands for those we felt needed to show their age, people 18 to 25. We issued 6000. When you get so many young people at a public bar, you are going to get incidents but overall it went pretty well.

"Years ago, you'd look at a crowd and it would be mainly an ageing group of 50-plus males but the clubs now are starting to market to a young audience, and it shows advertising works.

"On carnival days, Melbourne get bigger crowds but at the average meeting we have a better base in Sydney. I wonder whether the 50-plus males feel disorientated by the race fields. If we can't get race fields that are attractive to them and everybody else who bets a bit, it's a bloody hard business." Why the little punter has bigger chance WHY have Australian horse players never had it so good? "They are now smarter and have a better chance of winning because of superior information and reduced [take-out] margins," Terry Griffin, the Racing NSW betting steward, answered.

Griffin studies bookmakers' sheets, the trends of the plungers on both sides of the ledger and even Betfair.

Professionals no longer had a major edge over the rank-and-file enthusiast, he reckoned.

"Most people get the videos of almost every race and can form their own opinion of what happened," Griffin explained. "In bygone days, you couldn't get pics anywhere. Also now there is high-level statistical data on the internet for free. Once it was the domain of the professionals or those that had a computer set-up.

"Ratings are available for no cost. Information on shoeing, gear chances and gelding operations," he added. "It's important, but in the past only insiders knew it."

Punters are flourishing, too, due to new investment opportunities. "Flexi-betting is one of the better aspects where the little blokes can chase big dividends," Griffin pointed out. "Multi combinations were once only the realm of big players.

"Then the bookies came up with best 'fluc' and best tote, another bigger return to punters. Betfair has meant decreased margins. Basically, you want a 100 per cent market against the bookmaker. In Victoria, their market now revolves around 10 per cent [take-out] due to Betfair [being on course].

"Listening to the speakers at the Tokyo conference, they call it the 'churn' - the less they take out, the more they turn over. Punters are now playing against smaller margins, and are much better off because of it."

Max Presnell

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