Playwright George Bernard Shaw wrote: ''If all economists were laid end to end, they would not reach a conclusion''.
Many were recently in agreement but proved wrong this week when Australia avoided sinking into a technical recession.
Economists argue Australia has unexpectedly ''dodged a definition'' two quarters of negative growth known as a technical recession. It has prompted a swift rewrite of the political scripts.
It was the same case with this column when defence minister Joel Fitzgibbon quit the frontbench at 1pm yesterday, temporarily taking the focus off economic management and shifting attention to ministerial accountability and ethics.
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and Treasurer Wayne Swan have spent months priming the audience to hear the ''R'' word. Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull and shadow treasurer Joe Hockey have devoted equal oomph to critiquing the Government's performance in the lead-up to the premiere of the national accounts.
If Australia had slipped into a technical recession, Rudd and Swan would recite their lines the situation would have been considerably worse without the billions of dollars invested in stimulating the economy. Turnbull and Hockey would argue their opponents had produced an expensive turkey the Government's own Waterworld.
But the national accounts revealed a 0.4 per cent increase in growth for the March quarter, which meant Australia has avoided a recession on paper.
Swan can now ''go to bed at night and sleep now knowing, knowing that we've made a very significant difference here. The Australian people working with the Government have made a big difference''. Swan stressed Australian was the ''best performer in the world'' in economic terms and Rudd accepted the Oscar.
The Prime Minister thanked Australians, small business people, the business community, workers, local communities and tradies who have ''gone out there, rolled their sleeves up, not be turned off by negative sentiment and got on with the business''.
He thanked himself. ''The Government through its cash payments to pensioners, carers and others has kept the Australian economy going while the private sector is in retreat and until such time as our infrastructure investment kicks in,'' Rudd said.
In a bid to cushion this country from the impact of a global recession, the Government's three-part strategy involved cash handouts, funds for ''shovel-ready'' projects and long-term investment in infrastructure such as ports, rail, roads and broadband.
In political terms, the Government does deserve to take a bow for playing its part so far, but the Opposition has struggled in its critic's role. Hockey and Turnbull argue the national accounts are a tribute to the ''ingenuity, innovation and hard work'' of exporters.
According to Turnbull, Rudd's ''spending and borrowing binge has contributed very little to these figures, very little indeed. His cash splashes have obviously done nothing to promote exports and, given that the net exports figure was contributed to by both an increase in exports and a decline in imports, he can't claim credit for either of those factors''. He is right about the spike in net exports, but conveniently overlooks the increase in consumption, which has helped to stave-off the technical recession. Rudd should have given a shout-out to Australians struck down with over-stimulation those who spent their $900 cheque three times over. Meanwhile, the Government and Opposition are trying to have it both ways in the political debate. Swan and Rudd have repeatedly warned that we're in the midst of the worst global recession in 75 years.
''There is a lot by way of difficulty and obstacles which lie ahead of us. This is the worst global recession in three-quarters of a century, we will face higher unemployment in the Australian economy and we are not guaranteed that we won't see negative growth in the future. These are tough times,'' Rudd said.
Swan said the Government was merely being ''realistic, upfront and frank'' about the state of the economy. When the Opposition offers similar appraisals, the Government denounces them for ''talking the economy down''. It's a blatant double standard.
Hockey and Turnbull have criticised the Government for splashing the cash and going into hock. But the Opposition has offered few alternative strategies apart from suggesting a bit of extra support for small business and vowing the budget deficit would be at least $25billion smaller if they were in power. It's hardly a comprehensive plan for economic recovery.
In the past week, the political debate has centered on the definition rather than the profound impact of the economic downturn on real people. Australia may have avoided a ''technical recession'' for now but people are still losing their jobs and struggling to pay their bills.
And in the past week, the major parties have spent some time trying to overcome internal problems some major and some minor. The Coalition remains hopelessly split over the emissions trading scheme and Turnbull had to play peacemaker after Liberal MP Alby Schultz shirt-fronted his colleague Chris Pearce after a party room debate on three-cornered contests.
Defence minister Joel Fitzgibbon apologised for another ''oversight'' for failing to declare NIB run by his brother had paid $450 for his accommodation when he went to the State of Origin last year.
It was all over by 1pm yesterday, with Fitzgibbon quitting the frontbench after one too many ''oversights''.
Rudd tried to quash talk that unionist Kevin Harkins is in line for a safe spot on Labor's Senate ticket. He was stood down as a candidate in 2007 ''following community concern about illegal activity''. The Prime Minister came out swinging. ''Given Mr Harkins's career as a well-known pugilist, I thought his career would lie in the party opposite rather than in our party, given what has happened in the joint party room,'' Rudd said.
Peter Dutton a former cop from Queensland who now sits on the Opposition frontbench interjected: ''He's a union crook, he's better off on your side''.
Rudd continued, ''as far as Mr Harkins is concerned, from my point of view there are two chances of him entering the Senate on our part Buckley's and none.''
Danielle Cronin is Political Correspondent.
danielle.cronin@ canberratimes.com.au
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