The assassination of Benazir Bhutto has exposed to the world the seething struggle being waged in Pakistan between the fundamentalist religious right and the moderate, Western-leaning centre.
Bhutto was firmly in the Western camp. In trying to maintain a hold on power, President Pervez Musharraf slides between the two, satisfying neither.
The military is split along the same lines, with the powerful intelligence service, the ISI, backing the Taliban while paying lip service to United States requests.
Musharraf is a captive to this powerful deception.
Bhutto's return to Pakistan last year was brokered by the US who believed she would put a democratic face on Musharraf's regime, thereby saving their face and allowing Musharraf to stay in office and fight the US war on terror which he wasn't.
Bhutto's assassins were likely known to the ISI and quietly or actively encouraged.
The US once again backed the wrong horse, or horses, in the form of Musharraf and the born-to-rule Bhutto, although in the case of the latter they had little choice as, with their backing, Musharraf had snuffed out the democratic process which might have seen the emergence of other civilian leaders.
To put it mildly, Pakistan is in a mess and has been so for some time. In the subterranean world of Pakistan's byzantine politics, where allegiances are flexible and opposites join, a slow civil war is taking place. With nuclear weapons at the centre of Pakistan's international relations the stakes are high.
US policy in Iraq, Palestine, Afghanistan and now Pakistan has failed. To take a broader view, US policy in the Middle East and the sub-continent has failed both in terms of politics and policy. Its position on climate change provides a loose rein for India and a noose for Bangladesh.
From whichever way it is viewed, the war in Afghanistan is unwinnable. Topography, climate, lack of infrastructure, lack of allied troops, lack of secure supply, lack of UN and NATO will and a lack of knowledge relating to the history of the region combine to make the war a folly.
If it isn't already, the war will soon be a war of forts and resemble, to all but the mercenaries, a colonial occupation.
With the murder of Bhutto the politics and war in Afghanistan has lurched East. Is the ISI in control? No, but it is trying.
India, concerned at the rise of fundamentalist politics on its doorstep, is an active player inside Pakistan. It also reads the politics of Pakistan better than most and certainly better than the US.
Iran will also be concerned at the prospect of instability in Pakistan. Despite US pressure, Pakistan enjoys good relations with Iran at a number of different levels including diplomatically.
China is fed up with the explosive influence of the US in the Middle East which has now caused an earthquake in Pakistan. China has enjoyed a good relationship with moderate members of the Pakistani elite.
By its demonisation of Iran, the US has all but dealt itself out of having any diplomatic influence in the region. The use of military force has been ineffective in Afghanistan, counter-productive in Iraq and is not possible in Pakistan.
With America's options now severely reduced, there is an opportunity for Australia to play a greater diplomatic role in the region. Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is a cleanskin as far as the international community is concerned. He has early points on the board over his positive climate change intervention at Bali.
Rudd is a polished and accomplished diplomat. He has good relations with the Chinese and if he can apologise over the Haneef affair he will also enjoy good relations with India.
Rudd should consider putting together an initiative with China, India, Iran and Pakistan to work through measures that might go towards bringing a measure of stability to Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Australia can claim a role because of its military involvement in Afghanistan but primarily because of Rudd's skills and untarnished reputation.
It is a role that Australia once played as an independent, moderate and middle-ranking power.
US foreign policy is floundering. The Americans would probably welcome such an initiative, particularly if it were made known that they would be welcome to join the contact group once they bury the hatchet with Iran.
The adoption of such an initiative would be a great revival of Australian diplomacy and diplomatic skills which took such a battering under Howard and Downer.
Bruce Haigh is a former diplomat who served twice in Pakistan and Afghanistan and also in Iran and Saudi Arabia. He was a friend of Benazir Bhutto.