The 9per cent swing against the Labor Government in Saturday's election in the Northern Territory is being described as a surprise. Indeed, late last week, commentators were expecting the administration of Chief Minister Paul Henderson to be returned easily.
There was an expectation that the new leader of the Country Liberal Party, Terry Mills, had not had enough time to establish his profile. His relative newness in the job appeared to be key reason in Labor's strategy to call the election 11 months early. Labor hoped that capitalising on Mills' short tenure would continue the Government's dominance after its landslide win in the previous election.
Using political power in such a pragmatic way should not be rewarded. Nevertheless, Labor's strategy was successful in provoking commentary that the election had become crucial for the future of the CLP because, although previously holding power in the territory for nearly three decades, it had only one member in the Darwin region Mills.
Yet the Labor Party's stated reasons for the necessity of an early election appear spurious. Henderson said political certainty was needed for a joint venture that is intending to build a $12billion gas plant in Darwin or off Western Australia. He campaigned on the theme that the investment was more likely to go to the territory if the governing party demonstrated a full commitment to the project. This conveniently overlooked the Opposition's stated commitment to the project.
Mills displayed political acumen by portraying the CLP as the underdog in a David versus Goliath struggle. He also questioned why a company would make a commercial decision based only on which party was in power.
At the ballot box, voters showed the customary Australian hostility to the cynical exercise of the governing party forcing them to the polls early to take a perceived unfair advantage of the Opposition. The resulting huge swing in the Northern Territory showed again that voters do not like to be taken for granted.
There was always going to be swing away from the Labor Party, but Henderson appears to have unnecessarily provoked irritation in the electorate. If any lessons are to be gained from the election, the person who must surely take most notice is West Australian Premier Alan Carpenter, who has also called an early election.
Voters are capable of distinguishing between state and federal factors when they cast their vote. While the Northern Territory election was fought on local issues, it was held against a background of rising petrol and grocery prices.
Therefore, the Federal Opposition says Saturday's result is in part due to voter frustration at Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's lack of progress in delivering on promises to tackle price rises. It is in the Federal Opposition's interests to mount this argument because it wants the territory election to be seen as a barometer of Rudd's progress because it was the first conducted since he became Prime Minister. The Opposition says the territory election sends a message to Rudd that he has to start making difficult decisions.
There had also been a swing against the ALP in the Gippsland by-election and two more federal by-elections are to be held next month. However, Labor is not contesting them, as both are safe conservative seats.
Rudd says there is a lesson for his side of politics from Saturday's result ''that the Australian people will hold us accountable''. He could have been reflecting on the tidal wave of hostility that swept the Liberal government of Jeff Kennett out of power in Victoria but which built silently, as appears to be the case in the Northern Territory.
Now Henderson's perceived arrogance in calling an early election has been punished by voters. Late yesterday Labor retained power by holding the seat vacated by former Chief Minister Clare Martin. Inevitably, there will be election losses ahead for the Labor Party because its ''wall-to-wall'' domination of all nine federal, state and territory governments cannot continue indefinitely, and Rudd's election could hurry the backlash.
In the ACT, voters cannot be forced to an early election because the Legislative Assembly's term is fixed, and has been extended from three to four years.
The ACT election is due this year, on the third Saturday in October, when Chief Minister Jon Stanhope hopes to win another term against relative newcomer, Liberal leader Zed Seselja.
After that, the next date on which ACT voters will have to go to the polls will be at the discretion of Rudd. Barring a double dissolution, the federal election will be in September or October, 2010. Policy development in that year will be hindered by feverish speculation around the federal election date, a situation that could be avoided if the ALP was able to implement its policy for simultaneous, fixed four-year terms for both houses.