Despite refusing to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, the expectation that Australia will meet its protocol target when many other countries will not is a key plank in the Government's bid for re-election.
However, Australia's ability to meet its Kyoto target has been achieved through a retrospective change in the pattern of land clearing and some clever diplomacy rather than the permanent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions which is the aim of the Kyoto Protocol.
Australia negotiated an 8 per cent increase in emissions relative to 1990 levels in the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol because our energy generation heavily relies on carbon-intensive fossil fuels, particularly coal, and it was argued that rapidly decarbonising these industries was economically unacceptable.
All but two other Annex 1 countries Iceland and Norway committed to reduce, or keep constant, their emissions. Fifteen countries of the European Union collectively committed to a target of -8 per cent, the United States (which did not ratify Kyoto) -7, Canada -6 and the Russian Federation 0 per cent.
Australia will only meet its Kyoto Protocol target because of a major change in the pattern of land clearing that occurred before the current Government was elected. Between 1990 (the Kyoto baseline year) and 1996 there was a 50 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from land clearing. This had nothing to do with climate policy.
Armed with this information, Australian diplomats went to Kyoto in 1997 to cleverly and successfully argue that emissions from land use change should be included in each Annex 1 country's baseline if it represented a net source of emissions in 1990. Australia's emissions from land use change at the time were 24 times the next highest emitter.
There was resistance from other countries to this change, but the new article was eventually added to the protocol in the early hours of the morning of the last session of the Kyoto conference.
The inclusion of this article meant that the Australian Government inherited a 6 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions relative to 1990 levels when it signed the Kyoto Protocol without having to do anything.
This was a good platform from which Australia could buy time to institute changes that would reduce greenhouse gas emissions from other sectors, particularly its carbon-intensive energy sector which represented its largest source of emissions.
However, since the Kyoto Protocol negotiations in 1997 emissions from most other sectors in Australia have grown unabated.
Australia's rate of growth in greenhouse gas emissions for many sectors is substantially greater when compared with other Annex 1 countries, which includes most countries of the EU, the US, Canada and Russia.
In particular, greenhouse gas emissions in Australia's energy sector grew 38 per cent between 1990 and 2004 compared with a 5per cent increase in this sector over the same period for all other Annex 1 parties combined. Australia's energy sector now emits the world's highest greenhouse gas emissions per capita.
The Australian Government's own projections indicate that its greenhouse gas emissions will increase by 9 per cent between 1990 (the Kyoto baseline year) and 2010 (the Kyoto commitment period) and by 27 per cent between 1990 and 2020. But if we change the baseline to 1996 (the first year of the current Government), Australia's emissions will have increased 16per cent by 2010 and 34 per cent by 2020.
The current Government keeps highlighting that Australia will meet its Kyoto target. However, neither the target for greenhouse gas emissions the Government negotiated at Kyoto relative to 1990 (+8 per cent), nor projected emissions between the year this Government was first elected and the Kyoto commitment period in 2010 (+16per cent), nor projected emissions between 1990 and 2020 (+27 per cent) demonstrate a commitment by Australia to the spirit of Kyoto and to the deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions (60per cent of 1990 levels by 2050) required to stabilise global warming.
Philip Gibbons is a senior fellow and David Lindenmayer is a professor at the Fenner School of Environment and Society at the Australian National University.