News 
 Opinion 
 Editorial 
 General 
 Global system tends to chaos 

Global system tends to chaos

29 Jul, 2009 11:56 AM
What are we to make of the global financial crisis? Is it (or, more hopefully, was it) a technical problem, albeit a rather large one, caused by inadequate regulation of financial markets and institutions? Or should we view it as a symptom of deeper and more fundamental problems that are developing within the global capitalist system?

The answer depends, not so much upon facts and figures, but rather on the frameworks of understanding that we bring to bear on the problem. At a roundtable of policy analysts I took part in the other week, the economists present identified failures in regulatory policy, principally in the United States, as the major causal factor.

Monetary policy, they argued, had been kept too loose for too long, encouraging undisciplined lending: the US had no over-arching regulator (like the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority) to oversee the activities of all financial market institutions; and when the first signs of crisis emerged, the Bush regime had failed to act decisively enough, allowing investment bank Lehman Brothers to go under, thereby spreading panic throughout the world.

We might agree that these are proximate causes of the global meltdown. But looked at in another way, the looseness of monetary policy and the lack of an adequate regulatory framework were not accidents, but were bound up with the inexorable logic of American political economy. While risks are global, risk management remains national, which means that policy is as much political as it is economic. Giving control of interest rates to central bankers does not change the basic character of the system over which they preside.

Low interest rates in the period following the crashes and slow-downs of the 1990s facilitated high rates of economic growth in the United States. This helped to keep unemployment low, and enabled hundreds of thousands of poor Americans to become, however temporarily and peripherally, homeowners. The availability of easy credit was further stimulated by the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act of 1999, which removed (in the name of competition), the Depression-era barriers that had separated banking, insurance and securities. The burgeoning US financial industry stood to make mega-profits from the change.

To be fair, it was not as if Americans had been oblivious to the need for regulatory development. But the legislators were still learning the lessons of the previous crisis, rather than the one that was developing. The Sarbanes Oxley Act, passed in 1999, was intended to remedy the corporate governance deficiencies that had contributed to the demise of Enron and WorldCom. It did nothing about the looming tsunami of toxic debt. Meanwhile, the British Government was doing little to restrain an exuberant financial sector. Indeed, Britain had long prided itself on its ''light touch'' regulation of financial services, which was believed to be a factor in the pre-eminence of the City of London as a financial centre. It soon became apparent that, like their US counterparts, British banks had entered enthusiastically into the sub-prime market, and now had billions of pounds of rapidly devaluing assets on their books. Prime Minister Gordon Brown and his Government had little choice but to bail them out, using taxpayer-guaranteed credit to reinforce their balance sheets and to guarantee inter-bank lending.

The point about regulation is that, in a high-risk global economy, virtue is no saviour. As the financial crisis turned into a global recession, the two countries that were hardest hit were Germany and Japan. Both had relatively regulated financial sectors, but both were also major exporters of production goods used by manufacturers in other countries. As the recession began to bite, the first thing many of their customers did was to cancel orders for new plant and equipment. As advanced countries with highly-developed infrastructure, there was not much point in governments attempting to boost demand by investing in still more roads, bridges and terminals. And stimulus packages aimed largely at consumers were unlikely to have much effect when so many people feared for their jobs.

From the point of view of political economy, then, Australia's seeming immunity from the worst of these problems (at least so far) relates more to our position as a supplier of resources to the ever-resilient Chinese, than it does to any particular cleverness on our part. Even our very low public debt (which gave the Rudd Government room to spend massively to boost consumer demand and to keep people in jobs) has come at the cost of much-needed public investment. It is ironic that it takes a global financial crisis to loosen the purse-strings, however temporarily.

Ultimately, the world will haul itself out of the current trough, and growth will resume until the next crisis. As more and more countries enter the global economy (even Myanmar and North Korea have their external links), the system as a whole tends to become less predictable and more unstable. This is because no one country is large enough (or even willing enough) to act as global economic stabiliser. The Americans abandoned that role when they went off the gold standard in 1974, ushering in the prolonged period of stagflation that bedevilled economies during the 1980s (and may yet recur).

There is further cause for concern, because the large economies that are now emerging as global players Brazil, Russia, India, and China have little hesitation in using state power in the service of economic ends (and vice versa). ''So what else is new?'' you may ask. Well, nothing every country that has successfully industrialised has used public policy to underpin production. It is just that, with China in particular, we have a non-democratic nation with an enormous population, where no real distinction is made between state power and the economy. Australians are now starting to learn this, with the detention of Stern Hu and others, but the effects of China's way of doing business are felt far more broadly.

The Americans have long complained about the artificially low value of China's currency, which makes Chinese exports cheaper and their imports dearer than would otherwise be the case. But the protests have not been completely wholehearted. For the American capitalist investing in China, the advantages of low-cost production using cheap labour and the latest machinery have proved irresistible. The real losers are the ex-working class of the United States, now permanently unemployed, and we have come full circle now a tempting target for the manufacturers of exotic credit instruments.

We might also spare a thought for the ordinary people of China, the real producers of that country's amazing economic growth, who are shunted back to their villages when the factories shut down, and even when times are good, work in cities so polluted they are a health hazard in themselves. With no effective representation of their interests to force the state to spend on pollution control, and rampant corruption throughout, it is likely that China's growth will short-change many of the people of the People's Republic for some time to come.

Jenny Stewart is professor of public policy in the University of NSW, at the Australian Defence Force Academy.

Print
Increase Text Size
Decrease Text Size

comments


No comments yet. Be the first to comment below.

post a comment


Screen name  *
Email address  *
Remember me?
Comment  *
 
We invite and encourage our readers to post comments. Comments are moderated and will appear as soon as our editor has approved them. When posting comments you agree to be bound by our Terms and Conditions.

Most popular articles

Australian Running Festival



The Canberra Times







Weather brought to you by:

Weatherzone

Classifieds

Front Page

Current Issue
Privacy Policy | Conditions of Use | Advertising Terms | Copyright © 2012. Fairfax Media.
 SEND...
 SAVE...
 SHARE...