Reactions to the ACT election result vary even among members and supporters of the same party. This stems from two factors: the ups and downs of the parties since the last election and the conflicting messages sent out by the two public opinion polls, the latter one published only on the morning of voting last Saturday.
The Greens undoubtedly have most reason to celebrate. Three seats in a 17-seat assembly and the balance of power is quite an achievement. It compares well with five seats in a 35- seat lower house or even four seats in a 25-seat house in Tasmania.
Yet it is Tasmania, not Canberra, that is recognised around the world as among the Greenest jurisdictions in the world. But even the Greens might have a slight tinge of disappointment that it seems that they may not achieve the fourth seat predicted by Saturday's opinion poll.
Neither of the two major parties have much to celebrate when almost a third of the electorate votes for other candidates. But in both cases the result could have been worse for them.
Labor suffered a huge swing and a big dent in its reputation and that of its Chief Minister. But it has still hung on to office with a clear margin in votes, but not seats, over the Opposition. Furthermore the swing has mainly gone to the Greens, a centre-left party that either overlaps or is to the left of Labor on the ideological spectrum. If the cross-bench had been more mixed and more centrist Labor would be more vulnerable.
Furthermore Labor has retained its five ministers after some suggestion earlier that they may lose one in Molonglo.
The Liberals under new leader Zed Seselja will feel a mixture of achievement and disappointment. Unless they suffer a late setback in Ginninderra or Molonglo they have done two seats better than the Saturday poll predicted. They have also done better than they may have thought possible a year or so ago in the depths of their internal disunity prior to Seselja assuming the leadership.
But they too have suffered a negative swing and the centre-left has at least 10 seats (a comfortable margin in the ACT). They are consigned to Opposition yet again.
What the Greens choose to do now is up to them, but it is hard to believe that they will not support Labor in some way. Nevertheless it will not be business as usual despite the soothing words about both sides of politics being used to minority government and the stories circulating about fruitful relations with the cross-bench.
Both Labor and Liberal are very wary of the Greens, much of the wariness stemming from the Tasmanian experience of a Labor-Green Accord and later Liberal-Green minority government. For many in the major parties that was a disturbing experience.
So scratch most major party parliamentarians and you will discover anti-Green sentiment which the Greens are quick to reciprocate. The Greens don't like the major parties either. The things said by all sides in the campaign are not quickly forgotten.
Almost half of the new Assembly will be made up of new members. There will probably be new members in each of the three parties, certainly that is so for the Liberals and the three new Greens.
In the longer term, this will be a real benefit for the ACT because the Assembly needed revitalisation. But in the shorter term there could be a settling-down period as the new members find their feet. It is probable that a very experienced Labor government will face an entirely new Green cross-bench and a significantly new Liberal Opposition.
How the Stanhope Government now presents itself will be crucial. Unusually, the Government has not lost ministers despite suffering a negative 9 per cent swing. So it has limited chances to present a fresh face to the community, though the Speakership is now vacant. It is up to the ministry, from the chief minister down, to display a fresh state of mind.
The existing ministers have to demonstrate convincingly that they have heard the message. The electorate will take some convincing, however, because the serious resentments and irritations that caused the swing against the government remain.
Emeritus Professor Warhurst is adjunct professor of political science in the Faculty of Arts at the Australian National University.
John.Warhurst@anu.e du.au
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