Because of time differences between here and the US, Joel Fitzgibbon didn't actually speak to Kevin Rudd between his initial denial of receiving any significant gifts from Helen Liu and his discovery, that afternoon, that he'd actually failed to declare two trips to China in 2002 and '05.
If he had, it seems fair to assume that the Prime Minister's reaction would have made the word ''shit-storm'' sound like a refined piece of metrological terminology used to indicate an approaching cold front. A very severe chill has apparently now entered the relationship between the two men but this doesn't mean the Defence Minister is about to be sacked, or, rather more important, that the opposition have had a win.
As yesterday's stratospheric polling results made clear, politically nothing has changed. No one is on the ropes, unless it's Malcolm Turnbull. This means that Rudd will have the time he needs to fix the problem his own way. This has been the first time there's been a significant stuff-up at home while the PM's been away and, watching his reaction, it looked as if he was been careful not to make any sudden movements. Nevertheless, Rudd's psychologically unable to delegate anyway, so nothing was ever going to happen while he was abroad.
After a brief pause, Fitzgibbon's political ally Julia Gillard came out to back him. She used the accidental defence ''it was a lapse in judgment'', she said, echoing the PM's sentiment that he'd ''expected better'' and, perhaps amazingly, we've all bought it.
That's why, although there's still some sound and fury, there's no smell of an impending kill. But that doesn't mean Fitzgibbon is off the hook: it simply means the reckoning will come in Rudd's own time. He won't be dancing to anyone else's agenda, especially Turnbull's. It seems likely the thing that would infuriate the PM most about the political attack is its simplicity.
It doesn't take much depth to decode the behind-the-lines direction of the Opposition's assault. It boils down to a simple message: Rudd is secretly conspiring with the Chinese. The reality is very different.
Both the People's Republic and Taiwan insist vehemently there is only ''one China'', but this doesn't mean it's true. The party bosses on the mainland insist they are implementing ''socialism with Chinese characteristics''; but you could just as easily delete ''socialism'' and insert ''capitalism''. It's necessary to penetrate beyond the rhetorical formula to uncover what is really happening.
Rudd's first trip out of Australia was to Taiwan, while he was a uni student at the ANU, so he's very aware that the idea of ''China'' is complex. When he was later posted to Beijing in 1984, the mainland was enjoying a period of political and economic freedom. Rudd thrived in this intellectually turbulent time, where old ideas were being ruthlessly debated and challenged.
The promise of significant underlying change to the rigid, stultifying system appeared to be in the offing. It didn't happen. The repression had already begun when Rudd left China, until it was finally crushed on the pavement at Tiananmen Square in 1989.
The PM understands the complexity and many different faces of China. He is not Beijing's pawn. But there's a ruthless streak in Rudd. Just because Fitzgibbon hasn't been jettisoned, that doesn't mean the eject button won't be pushed when the PM is good and ready. He isn't good with excuses. Fitzgibbon might quite genuinely believe he was offered two trips to China simply because he was a ''good friend'' of Liu, but it's unlikely other people feel the same way. Connections are very important in Chinese society and business. They form the basis for interpersonal networks of trust which is the positive way of looking at them. Unfortunately, in the West, it's very easy to interpret this as corruption, because the dealings aren't transparent. That's why we provide an opportunity for parliamentarians to declare any activities that might be compromising. Unfortunately, Fitzgibbon didn't take the opportunity to do this until it was too late.
He must himself have been aware that he was walking a tightrope of disclosure. After all, why otherwise would he return a suit that had apparently been made to his measurements, presumably because he had admired the material? Presumably he'd been to a tailor and admired the expensive fabric but not ordered the suit. It's difficult to understand why he decided he should return the suit after accepting the rest of the generous hospitality his friend was plying him with so freely.
Although his dad was a politician, Fitzgibbon is a bit of a lad. While Rudd was studying to be a diplomat, Fitzgibbon was training to be a mechanic. They're similar people, but they're not the same. When Rudd shuffles people, it will look as if it's part of a natural, sensible half-term opportunity to sharpen the ministry by introducing new talent. Although some people have been promoted quickly, others are still languishing on the benches or in junior positions despite showing great promise.
Fitzgibbon livens up any forum, but he gave a surprisingly subdued performance in Parliament when he was unfairly blamed for the SAS pay debacle. Although he's by no means the weakest player on the Government front bench, Fitzgibbon is looking wounded and it's difficult to see any way he can resuscitate his image.
Rudd wants to see big changes in Defence this year. The Minister will soon have to steer through reforms accompanying the white paper and at the same time implement drastic cuts because the economic situation. Plus there's the further micro-level reform that is undoubtedly necessary to get simple things like pay working properly. A technocrat such as Greg Combet would revel in this sort of challenge. Unfortunately, now he's gone to climate change it appears unlikely he'd come back to Defence. But there are plenty of other aspirants for a frontbench position, even one that's proved itself to be a political graveyard for so many in the past.
And our relationship with China will go on, just the same, whether Liu manages to find another politician to buy suits for or not. We'll have severe tensions over business ownership the Rios and Chinalcos for many years to come. But the Opposition's got it very wrong if they think Rudd is just some kind of Manchurian candidate, a Chinese mind in a Labor suit. Only Therese buys Rudd's clothes.
Nicholas Stuart is a Canberra writer.
nicstuart@hotmail.com
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