If you happen to be sitting near Kevin Rudd at St John's in the near future, you can take a very good stab at what he is praying for.
He knows there is a big decision about to explode on the federal political arena, one that holds big electoral implications for his government.
It is the minimum wage rise to be given to all low-income workers. Will it lead to more job losses?
The Howard government used to say that one person's pay rise was another's job. Now that mantra is coming from the Labor administration, but with much more urgency as Rudd talks about an economic ''cyclone'' hitting our shores.
As an astute politician, he is trying to inoculate his government from blame. Most people will accept that he is not putting Australia into recession. In fact, he and Treasurer Wayne Swan are pedalling the other way, pouring billions and billions of dollars into our bank accounts to pump-prime the economy.
The only reason the government can do this is because John Howard left the budget in the black, a dramatic turnaround from Paul Keating's economic legacy. Yet another stimulus package might be needed, because no one knows just how badly the economy will slump.
On Sunday Rudd was being cutesy with the English language, again mangling it to avoid using the word ''recession''. Unfortunately, a technical recession looks unavoidable.
Two more unavoidable events could come together in the future, and the scenario looks as scary as it gets for a government: unemployment could hit 10 per cent next year just as the election campaign cranks up. Rudd's prayers could well be to avoid that deadly intersection of political disasters.
Meanwhile, what of the dole queues? Employers dump staff as orders dry up because consumers lack money (and the confidence to spend) and so the cycle accelerates. Therefore it will be important not to jack up wages excessively when the bean-counters are having sleepless nights over the future of their businesses.
Consider, then, the scenario facing Deputy PM Julia Gillard. The full horror of a flow-on to jobs of a wage rise any wage rise has already been clearly recognised in her submission to the Australian Fair Pay Commission. She argues that the forthcoming tax cuts and the cash bonuses in the economic stimulus package are already supporting the low-paid. ''During a period of relatively weak labor demand, an excessively large minimum wage increase could reduce the capacity of low-skilled workers to maintain and obtain employment,'' the submission says.
This is an extraordinary rebuff to the ACTU's ambit claim on behalf of low-paid workers. But remember the back story to this: straight after the election Rudd made it his mission to show that this Labor PM was not captive to the union movement. He has no links to the ACTU and rejected its appeal to immediately sack the wages commission Howard had established.
This climate of antagonism about the commission's future and the looming recession is putting enormous pressure on the commissioner, Professor Ian Harper. The legislation requires him to take into account a range of often competing priorities in setting minimum wages. ''In our previous decisions in 2006, 2007 and 2008, the commission acknowledged that increasing minimum wages too high can have a negative impact on employment,'' he said this week. ''On the other hand, the legislation directs the commission to balance this effect with the need to provide a safety net for low-paid workers. This [year's] decision will be the commission's most difficult of all. It is a balancing act that is particularly challenging in these uncertain economic times.''
A beautiful example of measured understatement, whereas the parties to the case argue stridently.
The ACTU reverses the jobs argument: a $21-a-week pay rise must be given to protect jobs. There is logic here. The extra cash would maintain the purchasing power of ''working families'' and stimulate the economy. ACTU secretary Jeff Lawrence says, ''Decent wages are a vital defence against a downturn in jobs and the prospect of a serious recession because they stimulate demand.
''More than a million low-paid Australians nine out of every 10 workers who rely on minimum award wages have already suffered real pay cuts of as much as $77 a week under the Howard government's pay commission.''
That bland statement does not do justice to the union movement's attitude to the commission.
Howard showed a sparkling sense of humour with the title Fair Pay Commission. It was dreamt up to counter those scurrilous rumours put out by the Labor Party and the union movement that WorkChoices was undermining the wages of the lowest-paid.
Now the unions are furious with Rudd and Gillard for refusing to abolish the commission until next year, almost three years after the Government took office.
The commission will rule on the national minimum wage in July but employers are split on what should be done.
The Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry is calling for no pay rise for 18 months. ''[It] is neither the smart thing to do, nor the right thing to do,'' chief executive Peter Anderson says. But the Australian Industry Group supports an increase of $8 a week in the minimum wage.
Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull is not taking sides. ''This is a matter for the authorities, for the Fair Pay tribunal to look at that ... we're not making a submission in this case,'' he said.
The split between employers is nothing compared with the split between the Government and the ACTU. Earlier this year Rudd called on businesses not to sack anyone because of the global financial crisis. ''Workers, too, must restrain any wage claims,'' he added, alarming the union movement.
The ACTU asked for $26 a week last year against a background of surging inflation pushing up rent, food and petrol, and the commission granted $21. This year the union movement can forget the $21 claim, given the weight of the Government's argument, the cash bonuses and the looming recession.
Treasury's latest forecast has unemployment going to 5.5 per cent by June and 7 per cent next year. But the black hole just keeps getting deeper. JP Morgan now says its forecast for the jobless rate touching 9 per cent next year ''looks a little low''.
Ross Peake is National Affairs Editor.
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