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Pakistan: the dangers ahead

4/01/2008 6:34:44 AM
Not everyone approved of Benazir Bhutto's policies, her performance as prime minister of Pakistan, and her willingness to enter into a United States-brokered deal with President Pervez Musharraf. Even members of her own Pakistan People's Party were not always supportive of the deal. Questions were asked about her willingness to participate in this month's elections despite the lack of transparency and fairness. Some even suggested that she was motivated by the need to protect the assets accumulated through alleged corruption during her two terms as Pakistan's prime minister.

But her tragic death last week has changed Pakistan for ever. Her assassination in Rawalpindi, not far from the spot where her father was hanged by General Zia-ul-Haq, has washed away any criticism that people levelled against her in the past.

Struck by disbelief, ordinary people are already recasting her as the icon of Pakistan's unity. Newspapers are replete with references to her commitment to the federation of Pakistan. They point out that Benazir Bhutto did not simply represent people from her home province, Sindh. She toured Baluchistan, the North West Frontier Province and then Punjab where she was killed.

That she prefaced her last speech with the significance of Rawalpindi in her life is presented as the evidence of her love for Punjab as much as other provinces. She is credited with a national vision that enabled her to engage another former prime minister from Punjab, Nawaz Sharif, in the wider agenda of wresting control from the military. Her murder, put simply, is seen both as the biggest threat to Pakistan's stability and at the same time also as a clarion call for ordinary citizens to arrest the country's slide into anarchy and civil unrest.

This recasting of Benazir Bhutto as the icon of unity could prove to be an asset. If harnessed effectively, it could help the country of 160 million people with growing incidence of militancy, to take stock of how it moved away from being categorised as the shining example of Asian development in the 1960s to being identified the most dangerous place in the world in the new millennium. It could also force Musharraf to rethink the strategies he has adopted to date for dealing with domestic and international issues. But that requires reliable and good leadership.

Unfortunately, the "appointment" of Benazir Bhutto's 19-year-old son, Bilawal (now renamed Bilawal Bhutto Zardari), as the chairman of PPP would not create the space for such a rethink or provide such leadership. In a country used to dynastic rule, such arrangements do not appear to pose a problem at the moment.

Bhutto Zardari has clearly referred to the federation and unity of Pakistan. Some commentators are likening him to the Mughal Emperor, Akbar, who assumed the throne at a young age and then left a mark on South Asian history. But such portrayals do not alter the fact that Bhutto Zardari has spent nearly half of his life outside Pakistan with virtually no experience of what it means to live in a poor and overpopulated country. The problem is further compounded by the fact that Bhutto's husband, Asif Zardari, has assumed the mantle of the Co-Chairman of the PPP. As the Prince Regent deputed to train Bilawal in the art of politics, he is tainted by allegations of corruption.

Known as Mr Ten Per Cent due to his alleged corrupt practices during Bhutto's tenure as prime minister, he is unlikely to command respect from all and sundry. Probably aware of this possibility, the PPP is pushing for elections to be held on the planned day despite the destruction caused in a number of areas after Bhutto's assassination.

The choice of representatives from the dynastic background becomes even more problematic when compared to other possible contenders for the position. Aitzaz Ahsen, a former law minister during Bhutto's regime and a committed champion for democracy, has made his mark on Pakistan's political landscape. He represented Sharif against the military regime's assumption of power. He has also represented the now replaced former Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, Iftikhar Choudhry.

Still under house arrest in Lahore, he has proven his credentials as a politician who stands for principles irrespective of the individuals involved.

Sharif has also established his credentials as someone unwilling to negotiate with the military regime without cashing in on changing tides. His Pakistan Muslim League has avoided taking advantage of the vacuum created by Bhutto's assassination and is willing to participate in the elections on January 8 as demanded by the PPP. But Sharif is unlikely to convince Sindhis of his credentials as an acceptable national leader. Bhutto's appeal in the last few months of her life owed a lot to the expectations among ordinary Sindhis that she would tilt the balance against Punjabis and Urdu-speaking muhajirs in Karachi. They are not likely to shift their views especially as the logic of grief reinforces anti-Punjabi feelings in the province.

Other political parties are also divided on the issue of how to deal with the post-Bhutto political scenario. While concerned about Pakistan's safety, some leaders are openly referring to the sense of alienation among Baluchis and Sindhis. They are also critical of the PPP demand for holding elections on January 8. And the ruling Muslim League is hoping that delayed elections would give them time to re-gain some political ground.

Meanwhile, the Musharraf regime appears paralysed. Apart from announcing three days of mourning, the President has been conspicuously absent from the scene. The cabinet has shown little sign of leadership with differing accounts emerging and then being discounted. The decision to hold or not hold the scheduled elections has also taken longer than required under such conditions.

Effectively, the absence of real and credible leadership creates a dangerous scenario. Irrespective of when the elections are held, the situation will get more unpredictable. The divisions among the political actors, all guided by their own dynastic and personal interests, coupled with the highly tarnished image of the Musharraf regime and extremely low credibility can only embolden militants. While ordinary citizens mourn the loss of Benazir Bhutto, their lives are likely to get more difficult and less protected unless the real leaders are provided a space to add substance to the language of the unity of Pakistan.

Dr Samina Yasmeen is director of Centre for Muslim States and Societies and lectures in Political Science and International Relations in the School of Social and Cultural Studies, the University of Western Australia.

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