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 Pakistan's bitter political harvest 

Pakistan's bitter political harvest

29 Dec, 2007 09:04 AM
There are many who will mourn the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, but none more so than the majority of Pakistanis who though they yearn for peace, justice and prosperity have had to settle for decades of corruption, mismanagement and political paralysis served up by the country's military and political elites.

Bhutto was very much part of Pakistan's political elite and disliked, even hated, by some Pakistanis for her pro-Western views, but at the time of her death she and her Pakistan People's Party enjoyed considerable support for their efforts to restore democracy to the country that has endured eight years of divisive military rule under President Pervez Musharraf.

Whether Bhutto could have managed the country's transition to stable democracy as prime minister under Musharraf, let alone meet even some of the aspirations of its grassroots supporters, is questionable, but there is no doubt that she was a symbol of hope to millions of Pakistanis.

What is beyond doubt was her courage not only for returning to an increasingly lawless and divided Pakistan in October after several years in exile, but for remaining there after an attempt was made on her life the day she arrived. Bhutto is now the fourth member of her immediate family to die a violent death, such are the political chasms that divide Pakistan. Perhaps because her family name was closely associated with martyrdom [her father, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, was hanged by the military after being ousted in a coup in 1979], Bhutto considered it her destiny to again lead the country, despite the allegations of fraud, corruption and familial strife that marked her first two terms as prime minister.

She was the politician most likely to deliver Pakistan from years of unpopular and increasingly repressive military rule, but she erred in concluding a deal with Musharraf that would allow her to come home to Pakistan and contest parliamentary elections in return for agreeing to allow him to remain as president. Though the deal was good for her and the PPP, it was fundamentally undemocratic in that it allowed Musharraf to sideline Nawaz Sharif, the leader of the other large opposition party, the Pakistan Muslim League, and Bhutto's only real rival in the general election scheduled for next month.

Why Bhutto agreed to this deal, brokered by the Bush Administration in an attempt to force Musharraf into making further democratic concessions, when she knew it would be anathema to the country's increasingly assertive extremists and fanatics, is not clear. But it was a big mistake. Most likely she thought a cooperative Musharraf would provide adequate protection, but as Thursday's events have shown, a determined suicide bomber will test even the tightest security.

The violent removal of Bhutto from the political scene offers the military the opportunity to delay, possibly for years, any transfer of power to a civilian administration firstly by postponing next month's election. But whether Musharraf remains as head of state is open to question. If the army is blamed for the Bhutto's death and there is a popular backlash against military rule, then Musharraf could be made the fall guy, clearing the way for a new generalissimo. While the military is as faction-ridden as any of Pakistan's institutions, an ambitious officer may well see an opportunity in the current climate of crisis to reassert strong central authority.

Also likely to be conflicted is the White House: does it persevere with its efforts to oversee a transition to democracy, in this case by pressing Musharraf to make an accommodation with someone like Sharif, or does it acquiesce in a continuation of military rule? The prospects of Sharif cooperating with Musharraf look slim, however.

Sharif was deposed and tried for treason by Musharraf, and has said consistently that he will not serve under him as prime minister although Bhutto's death might prompt a change of heart. But a political accommodation of any kind with the unpopular Musharraf carries considerable risk.

A better scenario, certainly for the long-suffering people of Pakistan, would be the emergence of a credible successor to Bhutto from within the PPP one able to harness popular and international pressure to demand an unequivocal return to civilian rule. Alas, because the country's largest party has been run more or less as a Bhutto family enterprise for four decades, there are no obvious alternative leaders.

Bhutto's death is undoubtedly a blow for the restoration of democracy in Pakistan, but not necessarily a final one. While it has underscored the spread and danger of extremism in the country, it is also likely to steel the resolve of those determined to restore civilian rule. And while Musharraf may well exploit the opportunity to extend his tenous grip on power, he must now recognise the price of failing to heed the popular will for change.

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