The allure of the political life above all others is unmistakable in Peter Costello's indecision. Life outside is not particularly attractive if you have politics in your blood. Whether the motivation in seeking public office is personal power or the opportunity to serve the community is not the point. The attraction of life in parliament and government remains.
Business, that alternative commercial world that Costello spoke about on the night last November that he announced his intention not to assume the leadership of the Liberal Party, is much better paid; but does not offer the same psychic rewards. That should be remembered whenever parliamentary salaries are debated. The claims that better people would be attracted to politics if salaries were higher are false. Politics is an exciting life that can rarely be matched elsewhere.
Time and again, political leaders stay on when logic points to retirement. We have seen a lot of that lately. The obvious case was John Howard. But the same applied to Kim Beazley. It is also true of former Labor leaders like Simon Crean, who has adapted to a more junior ministerial position. Another case is the former Nationals leader Tim Fischer, just appointed to the position of Ambassador to the Vatican, who has never ceased to be a public person since he left politics with the stated aim of spending more time with his family.
The surprising thing is not that so many leaders and potential leaders resign from politics but that so many hang on and clearly have great difficulty tearing themselves away.
Costello is facing a genuine dilemma. He must wish that he was Colin Barnett, the new Liberal leader in Western Australia. Both Costello and Barnett had effectively announced their retirements from their respective parliaments. Barnett, a former state leader who lost the last Western Australian state election to Labor's Geoff Gallop, was not going to stand again at the coming election. His party had even preselected another candidate for his seat on that understanding.
But Troy Buswell resigned and, a little like the federal Liberals choosing to return to John Howard in place of Alexander Downer in 1995, Barnett was the last man standing and his party called him back. He heard the call. Now it appears that the Liberals might call Costello back to save the party at the federal level.
Barnett however, unlike Costello, now has an opportunity without much downside. He faces a nice quick election campaign with the ultimate prize just a few weeks away. If he loses then at least the verdict will be quick unlike the case of Costello if he becomes Opposition Leader.
Costello, unlike Barnett, faces what, with plenty of forewarning, he couldn't face in November 2007; that is, at least one full term in Opposition.
Nevertheless, Costello has been given a second chance, just as Howard was offered another one in 1995. In fact, it is really a third chance for Costello as he could have fought Howard for the leadership 13 years ago. The situation has been created, as it was then, by the failure of the alternatives. In Costello's case the party would not be coming calling if Brendan Nelson and/or Malcolm Turnbull had been more impressive.
The big difference, however, is that while Paul Keating was faltering in 1995 after Labor had been 12 years in office, Kevin Rudd still looks likely to be re-elected in 2010. So the equation is very different. This was Costello's problem last November. He did not fancy facing up to six years in Opposition. He was tired after 12 years as Treasurer and frustrated by his failure to usurp Howard.
Costello is now rested and fresh. He has also come face to face with the available alternatives outside of politics. They probably don't look very attractive to him. There are many recent examples, including Keating and Bob Hawke, where post-politics lives in the commercial or semi-commercial world look very hollow. There are financial rewards, but only politics makes the adrenalin pump.
Parts of him must be smarting at the way his decision to step down has been portrayed by the political historians. As Peter Van Onselen and Peter Senior write in Howard's End: The Unravelling of a Government: ''While from one point of view his position was understandable, from another it marked the difference between those that make it to the top and those without the drive to take any opportunity to lead''. That's a nice way of saying that he lacked the gumption.
Costello is now being feted and flattered by fellow Liberals, including former Howard loyalists like Tony Abbott and Nick Minchin. He wouldn't be human if he didn't enjoy that sort of attention. He may even be listening to those commentators who say that Labor's reaction to the possibility of his return shows that the government is afraid of him.
There is now a real chance that Costello will return on his own terms. Don't rule it out, and if it occurs remember that in 2007 even Labor Party research, as reported in the new book, Inside Kevin07, by Christine Jackman, reported that his considerable but not unalloyed strengths were recognised in the community.
If he doesn't return then in allowing the story to run he has reinforced his own reputation as a ditherer. He will have to live with a media re-run of his weaknesses.
The Liberal leadership will also have been further damaged, not just Nelson but the only other alternative, Turnbull, whose peers appear to have judged him not yet ready.
Emeritus Professor Warhurst is adjunct professor of political science in the faculty of arts at the Australian National University.
John.Warhurst@anu.e du.au