The October 18 election in the ACT looms as one of the closest since self-government was granted two decades ago, and all indications point to it going right down to the last seat decided or perhaps even beyond that. A hung Assembly could mean that the next Chief Minister, and therefore the government, would not be determined until the first sitting after the election.
In the absence of detailed opinion polling, it is impossible to make confident predictions about the likely outcome, but nonetheless some general predictive observations can be made.
These are:
Majority government is highly unlikely.
Both major parties, Labor and Liberal, seem certain to win at least seven seats.
Independents and small parties, the Greens excepted, are unlikely to figure in the final calculation.
The Greens look likely to be the big winners.
Two other observations are also pertinent. The first is that, like the Commonwealth a century ago, it took several elections before a settled party system was in place. It has now been three elections since an independent was elected, and this is not likely to change at this election. The other point is that this is Labor territory, and for Labor to lose significant ground, it needs to have performed very poorly indeed, as was the case at the 1995 election (and also in 1998 after a very mediocre performance plus leadership instability in opposition). No one is seriously suggesting that this is the case in 2008, despite some not insignificant blemishes. It has, in the main, proven to be a generally sound and progressive government.
Labor's vote of 46.8 per cent in 2004 will come down a notch or two: lingering resentment over school closures and a backlash against the power station in southern Canberra will see to that, coupled with the natural attrition of support for a long-serving government. Chief Minister Jon Stanhope's hero status in 2004, when his personal vote in Ginninderra saw the ALP snare three quotas in the five-member seat, is most unlikely to continue.
With the retirements of Liberal stalwart Bill Stefaniak and ALP veteran Wayne Berry in Ginninderra, their sizeable personal votes are up for grabs, and the departures open up opportunities for a host of political newcomers. But with Labor unlikely to have such a springboard from the Chief Minister's vote as it did in 2004, retaining three seats appears to be a difficult proposition.
The Greens managed only half a quota (8.2 per cent) in Ginninderra in 2004, but candidate Meredith Hunter will no doubt improve on this, drawing support in her own right but also soaking up some of the committed left vote that Wayne Berry enjoyed as well as disgruntled Labor supporters in general.
Brindabella has never been a fruitful electorate for the Greens, who managed only 0.4 per cent of a quota (7.3 per cent) in 2004, but this election looks more promising. The party has a solid candidate in Amanda Bresnan articulate, recognisable and demographically apposite and she is likely to pick up some of the backlash vote against the power station.
Labor will be hard-pressed to hold its three seats in the southern electorate, and the retirement of Karin MacDonald will not help its prospects. But Labor strategists insist that they have not written off retaining all three, which suggests the ALP's own polling is not entirely pessimistic.
The Liberals on the other hand are upbeat about their prospects of picking up an extra seat in Brindabella, largely on the back of a protest vote against the power station. But Labor strategists say this is close to impossible.
This brings us to Molonglo, where two strong independents are also in the field former Liberal MLA Richard Mulcahy and long-time Queanbeyan mayor Frank Pangallo.
Mulcahy is the second elected Liberal in Molonglo in two elections to have left the party and run as an independent. His predecessor in the exit stakes, Helen Cross, is again contesting the seat as an independent, having won only 1.3 per cent of the vote in 2004.
The difference is that, while Mrs Cross was only narrowly elected in 2001, Mr Mulcahy topped the Liberal ballot in the seat last election as a first-time runner after a big advertising campaign. His campaign this time is no less lavish, but whether it will be enough to get him close to a quota in his own right is doubtful. Perhaps of even greater interest is where his support will come from, and the most likely source is from former or current Liberals. His rejection by the Liberals might not be a disadvantage, and Mulcahy in there and fighting is a bit like Banquo's ghost at the banquet, drawing attention to the papered-over dysfunctionality that is the ACT Liberals, new leadership notwithstanding.
To have lost one sitting member in Molonglo might be seen as unfortunate, but to have lost two is simply careless.
The ructions that have seen three leaders and four deputy leaders in the life of the current Assembly are too recent and too convulsive to be easily forgotten in the razzle-dazzle of a slick advertising campaign.
Mulcahy still enjoys considerable support as well as sympathy from both within and outside the Liberal Party, and especially so in the business community. It could well be that, while he might fall short of a quota, he could still inflict sufficient damage on the Liberals by siphoning off enough votes to threaten their third candidate. It's an unlikely scenario, but not altogether impossible. His preference flow will be interesting.
The other high-profile independent, Frank Pangallo, is the real unknown in the race. He is well known, he is experienced; but is his over-the-border identification a handicap? And where will his support come from?
It could well be that he takes votes from Labor, effectively negating Mulcahy's effect on the Liberals.
One long-time watcher of the local political scene surprised me last week with the prediction that both Mulcahy and Pangallo could win in Molonglo, leaving just two seats each to Labor and the Liberals. This is most unlikely given both the traditionally strong ALP vote in Molonglo and the fact that Labor has three strong candidates, all ministers, in Katy Gallagher, Simon Corbell and Andrew Barr.
The Greens' Shane Rattenbury is certain to win in Molonglo, where the Greens have always polled strongly.
On the basis of the above, the most likely outcome seems to be evenly poised between seven Labor, seven Liberal and three Greens on the one hand, and eight Labor, seven Liberal and two Greens on the other. Labor would retain government.
In either scenario, the Greens become the key players, which might just be an indication of things to come elsewhere in Australia, especially if the vote in last month's Sydney City Council elections is any guide.
Dr Norman Abjorensen teaches politics at the ANU.