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 Raising heat in hope of a crack 

Raising heat in hope of a crack

02 Sep, 2008 10:34 AM
When Canberrans open their newspaper and see that a group calling itself the People's Alliance for Democracy is attempting to bring down the Thai Government an obvious reaction might be, ''people, alliance, democracy: they must be the good guys.''

This alliance has taken to the streets to challenge the Prime Minister. They have invaded Government offices and the national broadcaster and are now occupying Government House itself. They have even sought to directly disrupt Thailand's multi-billion dollar tourist economy by taking over key airports in the south of the country. They hope to bring yet another elected leader to his knees.

It was, we should remember, the People's Alliance for Democracy that played a key part in the lead up to the 2006 coup that toppled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. They're now flexing their muscles again. Those who learn something of the background of the current PM, Samak Sundaravej, may be excited by the possibility of his ouster. Samak's chequered history as a major player in past decades of national politics ensures that, among many Thais, he is seen as a loud-mouthed right-wing bully.

With a reputation for a short-temper and bombastic outbursts, Samak is most famous for his involvement in the turbulent politics of the 1970s. Back then he sided with the reactionary crackdowns that left many student protesters dead or missing. Recently, he expressed sympathy for the ''good Buddhists'' who run the military dictatorship in Burma.

The current situation in Bangkok should not, however, be judged on Samak's track record alone. In fact, his Government is on the side of parliamentary democracy. Its vision of democracy, captured in the name of Thailand's leading political party, the People Power Party, is one where electoral politics reigns supreme.

Its support base is in the populous northern and north-eastern rural areas where the deposed government of Thaksin was also strongest. The success of Samak and Thaksin has been built on the votes of farmers, labourers, taxi-drivers, and the broader working class. The people.

The opposition, People's Alliance for Democracy, has taken its movement to the streets but it has failed to mobilise broad based mass support. It remains a niche movement, predominantly urban-based and with some elite backing. It is an ''alliance'' of a modest, un-electable sort.

Some of the alliance's key players were instrumental in the September 2006 coup. Their effort to install a palace-backed and military-affiliated government was rousingly rejected by the electorate. Thai voters, in the election of December 2007, showed that they continue to endorse the policies of the overthrown Thaksin government. These are policies that have been tested at repeated elections. They are the policies of Thailand's most successful party political force.

This matters to Australia for lots of reasons.

Australia's relationship with Thailand has grown and prospered over the past decade. A 2005 Free Trade Agreement has provided a launch pad for a healthy increase in bilateral trade. Despite the recent political turmoil, Thailand remains one of Australia's top tourist destinations. Educational and cultural links are stronger than ever. Thailand is also a key player in the region's security architecture.

So Australia needs to think carefully about how it responds to the current crisis. Samak is, in many respects, an unsavoury character. When it comes to violent crackdowns on protesters he has form. The situation could turn very ugly.

But we should not be fooled by the rhetoric of the People's Alliance for Democracy. Their fundamental gripe is that Samak won the election held nine months ago. They didn't want him to win it and they don't accept the result.

Their strategy now is to raise the political heat in the hope that something might crack, perhaps even opening the way for another military intervention.

Samak's government is far from perfect. Nevertheless, it is the product of an electoral and parliamentary process. That warts-and-all process provides the best hope for stable and peaceful political development in Thailand. The People's Alliance for Democracy don't just want to change the Government, they want to overrule the electoral system itself.

Nicholas Farrelly is a Rhodes Scholar at Oxford University. Andrew Walker is an anthropologist at The Australian National University. Together they co-founded New Mandala, a website that provides ongoing commentary on Southeast Asian affairs http://rspas.anu.edu.au/rmap/newm andala/

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