History will record John Howard's prime ministership as a much-needed rest break for a country remaking itself. The nature of his departure suggests his legacy will not endure.
The ousting of the Government has been a remarkable event. It is extremely rare for a competent government to be abandoned during an economic boom, let alone dumped. The consistency of the polls suggests it was not about the foibles of tactics, but reflected a deeper social shift.
Howard came to power in the wake of 25 years of turbulent social and economic change. In the 1970s the old social compact of a white Australia policy and heavily protected industries began to collapse, and the feminist movement began to push for women's equality.
In the ensuing period, tariffs were ripped down, the currency was floated, and centralised wage fixing abandoned. Women received equal pay and started appearing in all parts of the workforce. We saw the emergence of Aboriginal land rights and multiculturalism.
The big losers were blue-collar men. They had been hardest hit by the economic reforms, losing jobs as government privatised and industry restructured. They also had to make space for women and for non-Anglo people in the tea room.
In 1996, Howard came to power championing those that had felt marginalised by the change. They were dubbed the Howard battlers. He promised to stand up for their values, halt the constant change, and make us all relaxed and comfortable.
The Howard years have allowed Australia to regroup and consolidate. They have forced leaders who were too far out in front to come back to ordinary people. They have allowed changes that were once radical to be bedded down and normalised. Yet Howard's legacy is likely to be seen as a rest break. He blundered in his last term, unravelling his own "champion of the battlers" myth by introducing Work-Choices. He could no longer convincingly claim to be the representative of the battlers. However, history will record that, even without that mistake, Howard always had a use-by date.
A careful look at some of Australia's long-term social survey data suggests we were always destined to drift away from him. The data points to the reasons for that "it's time" feeling.
Over the past decade, up in the political stratosphere, the Howard Government moved to wind the clock back against the reform era, while data suggests that on the ground many Australians slowly embraced much of it.
Howard worked to enshrine a traditional view of the family, to reassert a white Australian identity, and the role of the churches. He started out slowly and gained momentum, becoming more extreme in his later years.
In the early years his critics accused his gently, gently approach of being "dog whistle" politics. As the Government won elections it grew in confidence and became more assertive. The shift was highlighted when Pauline Hanson criticised Peter Costello over his comments on the Cronulla riots. Hanson pointed out that when she made the same comment a few years earlier she was howled down as racist.
While this was happening in the political stratosphere, what was happening on the ground has been quite different. Studies indicate that at the grassroots, Australians were increasingly embracing reform-era values.
Social attitudes have embraced two-income families and a greater sharing of child rearing. People's views on what makes a family have also broadened. More than half of Australians under 50 consider a gay couple with children to be a family. More Australians believe government should do more to help Aboriginal people. People's attitudes have also become more positive to immigration. It appears to be part of general increase in Australians' commitment to equality and justice that is also evident on economic issues.
Gradually, and without any particular flashpoint, the Howard Government and the electorate were moving in opposite directions. Howard concluded the leaders' debate by talking about the history wars. He finished his last speech at the National Press Club warning people about political correctness. It was rhetoric that was devastatingly effective a decade before, but was now the language of a bygone era.
Dr Lindy Edwards is at the Research School of Social Sciences at the Australian National University.
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