It was Ronald Reagan, one week out from the 1980 presidential vote, who rhetorically asked Americans during a debate with Jimmy Carter, ''Are you better off than you were four years ago? Is there more or less unemployment than there was four years ago?'' It was a devastatingly effective pitch that won Reagan the debate and the presidency. No one asking that question of ordinary Americans a day out from the 2008 presidential election could expect to be overwhelmed by the positive responses.
The United States is being battered by an economic crisis. Many Americans have had their homes repossessed, or are struggling to hold on to their jobs as a result. Millions have no adequate health care, or have seen their pensions devastated by the collapse in share prices on Wall Street. The country's reputation and standing in the world has never been lower, primarily as a result of a poorly conceived and executed war on terrorism, and their President is derided at home and abroad as a lazy, maladroit leader. Is it any surprise that Americans (and people from around the world) have invested so much significance in today's presidential election, apart from the fact if Barack Obama is successful he will become the US's first black president?
With the White House having been occupied for eight years by the hapless George W.Bush, the desire for a fresh start has become almost palpable. It has been manifested in the low regard which Americans have for Bush, their overwhelming opposition to the war in Iraq that he engineered, and their belief his Administration (through its constant championing of corporate deregulation) has been complicit in the current economic crisis. It is Obama, with his articulate speeches about hope and change and his carefully groomed image as a political cleanskin, who has most effectively tapped into this sentiment.
Obama has transformed his earlier nebulous promises of change into a credible series of policies. Those aimed at restoring US economic health have naturally received the most attention in this campaign. Along with a pledge to make the tax system fairer, Obama has spoken of the need for far-reaching reforms to protect American consumers and business. He wants to raise the minimum wage, and index it for inflation. Internationally, Obama has proposed a military and diplomatic plan for withdrawing American forces from Iraq, so the US might commit more troops to defeating al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. He has promised to be tough on terrorism, and nuclear proliferation, but has hinted that diplomatic overture and sanctions will be part of the strategy.
His Republican opponent, Senator John McCain, has (necessarily) distanced himself from Bush's unpopular record but his congressional record of support for the President's legislative program has undermined his claims to being a maverick politician at some remove from the more reactionary elements of the Republican Party. Indeed, McCain's resort to class warfare and partisan division in the campaign proper has only strengthened perceptions his views and policies are anchored in the past.
Having opposed Bush's tax cuts for America's most wealthy citizens as fiscally irresponsible, for example, McCain now wants to make them permanent. Quizzed about America's economic predicament, McCain maintains that eliminating pork-barrel spending and letting markets operate unfettered will solve the problem. On Iraq, McCain maintains that ''victory'' there is still possible, though he has not spelled out clearly how this might be achieved. Nor has he offered a plan to reduce America's troop commitment in Iraq. As with Bush, McCain has a Manichean view of the world. He has proposed expelling Russia from the Group of Eight industrialised nations for its intransigence in Georgia, and has floated the idea of creating an alternative body to the United Nations, the League of Democracies, at a time when many of America's allies are hoping the new president will opt for a policy of re-engagement with the UN.
McCain's campaign has resorted to familiar Republican rhetoric, possibly weakening his appeal among undecided voters. In response to Obama's plan to make America's tax structure fairer, for example, McCain has accused his opponent of seeking to hide his intention to redistribute wealth as part of a welfare program. Only on the question of experience does Obama look inferior to McCain.
Obama has a short and unimpressive legislative record, and many voters are likely to regard his thin CV as evidence that perhaps he is not yet ready to occupy the Oval Office. The issue of Obama's skin colour, too, is likely to play on the minds of many white voters, irrelevant though this is. Nevertheless, Obama's skill in managing an astonishingly successful bid for the presidency suggests he is no ordinary politician. Of course, running a brilliant campaign is no guarantee a politician will make a success of high office. But Obama is the stand-out candidate, which is why he should win this election.